Football · Belgium First Division B · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege

Team pages: Lierse Kempenzonen · RFC Liege

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Lierse Kempenzonen1.26

RFC Liege1.26

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Lierse Kempenzonen Draw RFC Liege

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lierse Kempenzonen 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDLWD

RFC Liege 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Lierse Kempenzonen 3–3 RFC Liege (6 last)

RFC Liege2-1Lierse Kempenzonen
Lierse Kempenzonen1-2RFC Liege
RFC Liege2-1Lierse Kempenzonen
Lierse Kempenzonen2-1RFC Liege
Lierse Kempenzonen3-2RFC Liege
RFC Liege2-4Lierse Kempenzonen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lierse Kempenzonen 1508 · RFC Liege 1480

	Lierse Kempenzonen	Draw	RFC Liege
Our model	35%	29%	35%
Market	36%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lierse Kempenzonen	RFC Liege
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.35 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +2’	2.55	3.30	2.35
02:51 +5’	2.45▼	3.30	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lierse Kempenzonen 3–0–3 RFC Liege

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Belgium First Division B	RFC Liege	2-1 HT 1-0	Lierse Kempenzonen
19/10/25 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	1-2 HT 0-2	RFC Liege
23/02/25 Belgium First Division B	RFC Liege	2-1 HT 1-1	Lierse Kempenzonen
06/12/24 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	2-1 HT 1-0	RFC Liege
16/03/24 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	3-2 HT 1-1	RFC Liege
12/11/23 Belgium First Division B	RFC Liege	2-4 HT 2-1	Lierse Kempenzonen

Standings · Belgium First Division B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
2	Excelsior Virton	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
3	Club Brugge II	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
4	FCV Dender EH	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
5	KSC Lokeren Temse	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Francs Borains	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
7	Sporting Hasselt	3	2	0	1	2	2	6
8	Lierse Kempenzonen	3	1	1	1	3	5	4
9	Eupen	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
10	RFC Liege	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
11	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
12	Genk II	3	1	0	2	7	9	3
13	Gent II	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
14	Seraing United	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
15	Anderlecht II	3	0	0	3	1	4	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lierse Kempenzonen	RFC Liege
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	2-1 W	1-1 D
ROC Charleroi	1-0 W	2-1 W
Francs Borains	0-2 L	1-2 L
Eupen	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lierse Kempenzonen

WWLDLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Seraing United Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
15/08	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Division B	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
17/04	KSC Lokeren Temse Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/04	Francs Borains Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
21/03	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
13/03	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
10/03	Eupen Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
07/03	Club Brugge II Belgium First Division B	1-0	2-1	1	3	W

RFC Liege

DLLWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
23/08	Genk II Belgium First Division B	2-1	3-2	3	1	W
17/08	Francs Borains Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
27/04	Lommel Belgium First Division B	1-2	1-2	11	3	L
17/04	Eupen Belgium First Division B	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
12/04	Gent II Belgium First Division B	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
05/04	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Division B	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
21/03	SK Beveren Belgium First Division B	0-3	0-4	2	1	L
14/03	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
10/03	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-1	3	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lierse Kempenzonen win (36%). Probabilities: Lierse Kempenzonen 36%, draw 28%, RFC Liege 36%.

How many goals are expected in Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Lierse Kempenzonen 1.26 · RFC Liege 1.26), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.