Football · Hungary NB I · 25/10, 13:15

Prediction: Vasas SC vs Paksi

Team pages: Vasas SC · Paksi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Vasas SC1.85

Paksi1.7

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Vasas SC Draw Paksi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasas SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWWDL

Paksi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Vasas SC 3–2–1 Paksi (6 last)

Vasas SC2-2Paksi
Paksi1-3Vasas SC
Vasas SC2-3Paksi
Paksi2-3Vasas SC
Paksi0-1Vasas SC
Vasas SC2-2Paksi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasas SC 1529 · Paksi 1514

	Vasas SC	Draw	Paksi
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	41%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vasas SC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasas SC	Paksi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	3.2 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.89 ★
2	2.63 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +25’	2.20	3.60	2.63
12:15 +9’	2.20	3.60	2.60▼
15:22 +9’	2.30▲	3.75▲	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +515’	2.27	3.94	2.69
19:44 +68’	2.26▼	3.94	2.70▲
09:57 +20’	2.33▲	3.92▼	2.61▼
11:56 +29’	2.29▼	3.89▼	2.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasas SC 3–2–1 Paksi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/24 Hungary Cup	Vasas SC	2-2 HT 0-1	Paksi
01/07/23 Club Friendly List	Paksi	1-3 HT 0-2	Vasas SC
19/03/23 Hungary NB I	Vasas SC	2-3 HT 0-1	Paksi
01/03/23 Hungary Cup	Paksi	2-3 HT 1-2	Vasas SC
29/10/22 Hungary NB I	Paksi	0-1 HT 0-1	Vasas SC
05/08/22 Hungary NB I	Vasas SC	2-2 HT 2-1	Paksi

Standings · Hungary NB I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Puskas Academy	10	7	0	3	15	10	21
2	Gyori ETO	10	5	3	2	18	12	18
3	Vasas SC	10	4	3	3	18	13	15
4	Ujpest	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
5	Paksi	10	4	2	4	20	19	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	3	5	1	13	10	14
7	Debreceni VSC	10	3	4	3	16	16	13
8	MTK Budapest	10	3	3	4	16	17	12
9	Kisvarda FC	10	2	5	3	11	12	11
10	Kispest Honved	9	2	4	3	13	15	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	10	3	0	7	12	21	9
12	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	10	2	2	6	10	20	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasas SC	Paksi
MTK Budapest	0-1 L	3-0 W
Kisvarda FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Debreceni VSC	4-2 W	2-4 L
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	3-2 W	1-1 D
Ujpest	1-3 L	2-0 W
Puskas Academy	0-1 L	2-3 L
Kispest Honved	2-1 W	2-2 D
Zalaegerszegi TE	5-0 W	2-5 L
Ferencvarosi TC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Gyori ETO	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vasas SC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasas SC

DDWWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
10/10	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
19/09	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	1-2	4-2	3	10	W
04/09	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	2-1	3-2	7	10	W
29/08	Ujpest Hungary NB I	0-0	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
14/08	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
08/08	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	2-0	5-0	8	4	W
02/08	Ferencvarosi TC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
26/07	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	4	6	D

Paksi

WLDLWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
10/10	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
19/09	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
05/09	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	1-3	2-4	8	2	L
29/08	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
21/08	Ujpest Hungary NB I	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
16/08	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	1-2	2-3	7	2	L
09/08	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
03/08	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	2-3	2-5	7	6	L
26/07	Ferencvarosi TC Hungary NB I	2-2	4-2	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasas SC vs Paksi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasas SC win (41%). Probabilities: Vasas SC 41%, draw 24%, Paksi 35%.

How many goals are expected in Vasas SC vs Paksi?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Vasas SC 1.85 · Paksi 1.7), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasas SC vs Paksi?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.