Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 27/07, 17:00

Prediction: STK Samorin vs OFK Malzenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

STK Samorin1.37

OFK Malzenice1.27

1X2

39% 27% 34%

STK Samorin Draw OFK Malzenice

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

STK Samorin 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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OFK Malzenice 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

STK Samorin 5–1 OFK Malzenice (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · STK Samorin 1582 · OFK Malzenice 1498

	STK Samorin	Draw	OFK Malzenice
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours STK Samorin (rating 1582 vs 1498).
H2H favours STK Samorin: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	STK Samorin	OFK Malzenice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +8’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · STK Samorin 5–0–1 OFK Malzenice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Slovakia 2. Liga	OFK Malzenice	2-3 HT 0-3	STK Samorin
30/01/26 Czechia Tipsport Liga	STK Samorin	2-0 HT 2-0	OFK Malzenice
25/10/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	1-0 HT 0-0	OFK Malzenice
30/03/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	1-0 HT 1-0	OFK Malzenice
01/09/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	OFK Malzenice	2-1 HT 0-0	STK Samorin
17/05/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	2-0 HT 1-0	OFK Malzenice

Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tatran Presov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Petrzalka	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slovan Galanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	STK Samorin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Humenne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Inter Bratislava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Pohronie	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MFK Bytca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MFK Zvolen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MSK Povazska Bystrica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MSK Zilina B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OFK Banik Lehota	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OFK Malzenice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slovan Bratislava B	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	STK Samorin	OFK Malzenice
MFK Zvolen	3-1 W	0-0 D
Slovan Bratislava B	1-1 D	1-1 D
MSK Povazska Bystrica	1-1 D	4-2 W
FC Vion Zlate Moravce	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

STK Samorin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Al Gharafa World Club Friendlies	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/07	FC Spartak Trnava Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Dunajska Streda Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
15/05	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/05	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	3-0	3-2	2	10	W
02/05	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
25/04	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/04	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	1-1	12	5	D
17/04	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/04	Dukla Banska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-2	2	4	L

OFK Malzenice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Besiktas Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/06	MFK Ruzomberok Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
15/05	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
08/05	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	0-3	2-3	6	10	L
03/05	MSK Zilina B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
26/04	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/04	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	13	W
19/04	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	9	D
12/04	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	4-2	6	3	W
07/04	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in STK Samorin vs OFK Malzenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a STK Samorin win (39%). Probabilities: STK Samorin 39%, draw 27%, OFK Malzenice 34%.

How many goals are expected in STK Samorin vs OFK Malzenice?

The model expects 2.64 goals (STK Samorin 1.37 · OFK Malzenice 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in STK Samorin vs OFK Malzenice?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.