Football · Czechia 2. Liga · 31/10, 18:00

Prediction: Trinec vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa

Team pages: Trinec · Arsenal Ceska Lipa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Trinec1.79

Arsenal Ceska Lipa1.51

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Trinec Draw Arsenal Ceska Lipa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Trinec 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Arsenal Ceska Lipa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trinec 1466 · Arsenal Ceska Lipa 1471

	Trinec	Draw	Arsenal Ceska Lipa
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trinec	Arsenal Ceska Lipa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:47 +3’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MFK Karvina	12	9	0	3	26	13	27
2	Vysocina Jihlava	12	7	2	3	21	12	23
3	Dukla Praha	12	6	3	3	22	19	21
4	FK Usti nad Labem	12	5	4	3	20	16	19
5	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim	12	5	3	4	20	16	18
6	FK Pribram	12	4	6	2	22	20	18
7	Slavia Prague B	12	4	4	4	25	20	16
8	FC Silon Taborsko	12	3	6	3	16	16	15
9	Banik Ostrava B	12	4	3	5	20	17	15
10	SK Kladno	12	3	5	4	17	18	14
11	Opava	12	3	5	4	18	21	14
12	Viktoria Zizkov	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
13	Arsenal Ceska Lipa	12	3	4	5	16	22	13
14	Trinec	12	2	5	5	14	21	11
15	SK Prostejov	12	1	7	4	16	21	10
16	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz	12	2	3	7	11	24	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trinec	Arsenal Ceska Lipa
FK Pribram	3-2 W	2-2 D
SK Kladno	0-1 L	3-2 W
Viktoria Zizkov	0-3 L	1-2 L
MFK Karvina	3-2 W	2-5 L
FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim	1-2 L	2-1 W
Banik Ostrava B	1-4 L	1-0 W
Opava	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Usti nad Labem	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Arsenal Ceska Lipa (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trinec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Silon Taborsko Czechia 2. Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
16/10	FK Pribram Czechia 2. Liga	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
10/10	SK Kladno Czechia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
20/09	Viktoria Zizkov Czechia 2. Liga	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
11/09	MFK Karvina Czechia 2. Liga	0-2	3-2	3	3	W
04/09	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim Czechia 2. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
29/08	Banik Ostrava B Czechia 2. Liga	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
21/08	Opava Czechia 2. Liga	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
17/08	FK Usti nad Labem Czechia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
07/08	Slavia Prague B Czechia 2. Liga	2-3	2-3	7	4	L

Arsenal Ceska Lipa

DLWWLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Pribram Czechia 2. Liga	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
18/10	SK Kladno Czechia 2. Liga	2-0	3-2	1	7	W
10/10	Viktoria Zizkov Czechia 2. Liga	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
18/09	Opava Czechia 2. Liga	1-2	1-2	4	3	L
12/09	SK Prostejov Czechia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
04/09	Vysocina Jihlava Czechia 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
29/08	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim Czechia 2. Liga	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
23/08	Banik Ostrava B Czechia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/08	MFK Karvina Czechia 2. Liga	2-3	2-5	2	3	L
07/08	FK Usti nad Labem Czechia 2. Liga	0-3	3-3	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trinec vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trinec win (43%). Probabilities: Trinec 43%, draw 26%, Arsenal Ceska Lipa 31%.

How many goals are expected in Trinec vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Trinec 1.79 · Arsenal Ceska Lipa 1.51), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Trinec vs Arsenal Ceska Lipa?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.