Football · Czechia First League · 25/07, 20:00

Prediction: FC Brno vs Sparta Prague

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

FC Brno0.92

Sparta Prague1.72

1X2

19% 25% 56%

FC Brno Draw Sparta Prague

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Brno 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Sparta Prague 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Brno 0–1–5 Sparta Prague (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Brno 1585 · Sparta Prague 1542

	FC Brno	Draw	Sparta Prague
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	20%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Brno (rating 1585 vs 1542).
H2H favours Sparta Prague: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Brno	Sparta Prague
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.8	2.9 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.80

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +20’	4.50	3.80	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Brno 0–1–5 Sparta Prague

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/10/24 Czechia Cup	Sparta Prague	4-0 HT 1-0	FC Brno
02/04/23 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	3-1 HT 2-1	FC Brno
08/10/22 Czechia First League	FC Brno	0-4 HT 0-2	Sparta Prague
29/05/21 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	6-1 HT 6-1	FC Brno
22/08/20 Czechia First League	FC Brno	1-4 HT 0-4	Sparta Prague
04/03/18 Czechia First League	Sparta Prague	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Brno

Standings · Czechia First League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Slovacko	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bohemians 1905	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banik Ostrava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hradec Kralove	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slovan Liberec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Viktoria Plzen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Brno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Trinity Zlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mlada Boleslav	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pardubice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Teplice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Artis Brno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sigma Olomouc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Slavia Prague	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Prague	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Brno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	FK Zeleziarne Podbrezova Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	11	3	W
08/07	Hartberg Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
04/07	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
01/07	Tiszakecske FC Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-2	8	0	W
30/06	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
23/06	SK Prostejov Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
23/05	Ceske Budejovice Czechia 2. Liga	1-0	4-1	10	0	W
16/05	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz Czechia 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
10/05	FC Sellier & Bellot Vlasim Czechia 2. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
06/05	Banik Ostrava B Czechia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	8	4	D

Sparta Prague

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	FC Nordsjaelland Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-5	6	1	L
16/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
11/07	Gamba Osaka World Club Friendlies	2-0	3-0	11	0	W
04/07	Opava Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
24/05	Hradec Kralove Czechia First League	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
17/05	Slovan Liberec Czechia First League	0-0	2-0	10	3	W
12/05	Viktoria Plzen Czechia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
09/05	Slavia Prague Czechia First League	1-1	3-0	7	8	W
03/05	FK Jablonec Czechia First League	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
25/04	Bohemians 1905 Czechia First League	0-0	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Brno vs Sparta Prague?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sparta Prague win (56%). Probabilities: FC Brno 19%, draw 25%, Sparta Prague 56%.

How many goals are expected in FC Brno vs Sparta Prague?

The model expects 2.64 goals (FC Brno 0.92 · Sparta Prague 1.72), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Brno vs Sparta Prague?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.