Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: NS Mura vs NK Bravo

Team pages: NS Mura · NK Bravo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

NS Mura1.28

NK Bravo1.16

1X2

38% 29% 33%

NS Mura Draw NK Bravo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NS Mura 0-7-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLDDDDDD

NK Bravo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLDDLW

Head-to-head

NS Mura 1–2–3 NK Bravo (6 last)

NK Bravo2-0NS Mura
NS Mura1-2NK Bravo
NK Bravo0-2NS Mura
NS Mura1-1NK Bravo
NK Bravo2-0NS Mura
NK Bravo1-1NS Mura

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NS Mura 1456 · NK Bravo 1531

	NS Mura	Draw	NK Bravo
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bravo (rating 1456 vs 1531).
H2H favours NK Bravo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NS Mura	NK Bravo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.2	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.32
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.34
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +9’	2.30	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +6’	2.32	3.34	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NS Mura 1–2–3 NK Bravo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	2-0 HT 1-0	NS Mura
11/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-2 HT 0-2	NK Bravo
03/02/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	0-2 HT 0-0	NS Mura
04/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Bravo
26/07/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	2-0 HT 1-0	NS Mura
28/04/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	1-1 HT 0-1	NS Mura

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	15	8	5	2	26	13	29
2	NK Maribor	15	6	6	3	22	16	24
3	NK Bravo	15	6	5	4	17	16	23
4	NK Celje	14	6	5	3	19	13	23
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	15	6	5	4	17	13	23
6	NK Nafta 1903	15	5	4	6	19	21	19
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	15	4	5	6	21	14	17
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	15	4	4	7	16	25	16
9	NS Mura	15	2	8	5	15	26	14
10	NK Radomlje	14	1	5	8	16	31	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NS Mura	NK Bravo
FC Koper	1-1 D	1-2 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	0-0 D	0-0 D
NK Radomlje	1-1 D	2-2 D
NK Nafta 1903	0-0 D	0-1 L
Olimpija Ljubljana	3-3 D	2-1 W
NK Celje	0-0 D	2-1 W
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-6 L	0-0 D
NK Maribor	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 7 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bravo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NS Mura

LLDLDDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/11	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
27/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	11	D
17/10	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
10/10	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	3-3	7	5	D
20/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
13/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-3	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	0	6	D
29/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
22/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

NK Bravo

LWDWWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
02/11	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
29/10	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
17/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
11/10	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
20/09	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	2-1	2	11	W
12/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
05/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
29/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
23/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NS Mura vs NK Bravo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NS Mura win (38%). Probabilities: NS Mura 38%, draw 29%, NK Bravo 33%.

How many goals are expected in NS Mura vs NK Bravo?

The model expects 2.44 goals (NS Mura 1.28 · NK Bravo 1.16), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NS Mura vs NK Bravo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.