Football · Japan J2-League · 22/08, 12:00

Prediction: Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama FC

Team pages: Montedio Yamagata · Yokohama FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Montedio Yamagata1.23

Yokohama FC1.57

1X2

28% 28% 44%

Montedio Yamagata Draw Yokohama FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Montedio Yamagata 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLWLWL

Yokohama FC 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Montedio Yamagata 3–3 Yokohama FC (6 last)

Montedio Yamagata1-0Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC1-2Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata1-2Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC2-0Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata2-0Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC2-1Montedio Yamagata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Montedio Yamagata 1477 · Yokohama FC 1582

	Montedio Yamagata	Draw	Yokohama FC
Our model	29%	27%	44%
Market	28%	29%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yokohama FC (rating 1477 vs 1582).
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Montedio Yamagata	Yokohama FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.39 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.28
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +9’	3.25	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:52	3.39	3.28	2.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Montedio Yamagata 3–0–3 Yokohama FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Montedio Yamagata	1-0 HT 0-0	Yokohama FC
07/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Yokohama FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Montedio Yamagata
31/08/24 Japan J2-League	Montedio Yamagata	1-2 HT 1-0	Yokohama FC
09/03/24 Japan J2-League	Yokohama FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Montedio Yamagata
14/09/22 Japan J2-League	Montedio Yamagata	2-0 HT 0-0	Yokohama FC
30/03/22 Japan J2-League	Yokohama FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Montedio Yamagata

Standings · Japan J2-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fujieda MYFC	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Yokohama FC	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Omiya Ardija	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Shonan Bellmare	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
5	Sagan Tosu	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
6	Tochigi City	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
7	Kataller Toyama	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
8	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	Montedio Yamagata	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	Albirex Niigata	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Iwaki FC	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
12	Vanraure Hachinohe	2	1	0	1	2	5	3
13	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Oita	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Jubilo Iwata	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Ventforet Kofu	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Tokushima Vortis	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
17	Vegalta Sendai	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
19	Blaublitz Akita	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
20	FC Imabari	2	0	0	2	3	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Montedio Yamagata	Yokohama FC
Shonan Bellmare	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tochigi City	2-0 W	2-2 D
Sagamihara	2-3 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Yokohama FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Montedio Yamagata

LLLWDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
09/08	Tochigi City Japan J2-League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Albirex Niigata World Club Friendlies	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
25/07	Albirex Niigata World Club Friendlies	2-0	4-3	7	1	W
07/06	Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
31/05	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/05	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	3-0	3-1	3	1	W
16/05	Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
10/05	Sagamihara Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	2-3	2	3	L
06/05	Thespa Gunma Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Yokohama FC

WDDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
08/08	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
06/06	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
30/05	Omiya Ardija Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
23/05	Vegalta Sendai Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	3-0	1	3	W
17/05	Tochigi SC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/05	Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
02/05	Sagamihara Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-3	3-3	10	5	D
29/04	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	4-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yokohama FC win (44%). Probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 28%, draw 28%, Yokohama FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Montedio Yamagata 1.23 · Yokohama FC 1.57), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.