Football · Japan J2-League · 26/09, 10:00
Prediction: Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu
Team pages: Montedio Yamagata · Sagan Tosu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Montedio Yamagata1.4
Sagan Tosu1
1X2
Montedio Yamagata
Draw
Sagan Tosu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Montedio Yamagata
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Sagan Tosu
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montedio Yamagata
1–1–4
Sagan Tosu
(6 last)
- Montedio Yamagata3-2Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu2-1Montedio Yamagata
- Sagan Tosu4-3Montedio Yamagata
- Montedio Yamagata1-3Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu1-0Montedio Yamagata
- Montedio Yamagata0-0Sagan Tosu
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sagan Tosu: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montedio Yamagata | Sagan Tosu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.6 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.3 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montedio Yamagata 1–1–4 Sagan Tosu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Sagan Tosu |
| 25/04/25 Japan J2-League | Sagan Tosu | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 14/11/15 Japan FA Cup | Sagan Tosu | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 16/08/15 Japan J-League | Montedio Yamagata | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sagan Tosu |
| 12/04/15 Japan J-League | Sagan Tosu | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 10/09/14 Japan FA Cup | Montedio Yamagata | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sagan Tosu |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Vegalta Sendai | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Fujieda MYFC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Jubilo Iwata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Tokushima Vortis | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| 11 | Montedio Yamagata | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 13 | Iwaki FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Sagan Tosu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| 16 | Oita | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 17 | Ventforet Kofu | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 7 |
| 18 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 5 |
| 20 | FC Imabari | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montedio Yamagata | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Ventforet Kofu | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| FC Imabari | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Yokohama FC | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Tochigi City | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Fujieda MYFC | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Jubilo Iwata | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Montedio Yamagata (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montedio Yamagata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/11 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 23/11 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 09/11 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Sagan Tosu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/11 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 23/11 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 09/11 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montedio Yamagata win (45%). Probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 45%, draw 30%, Sagan Tosu 26%.
How many goals are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Montedio Yamagata 1.4 · Sagan Tosu 1), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.