Football · Japan J2-League · 03/11, 06:00
Prediction: Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis
Team pages: Montedio Yamagata · Tokushima Vortis
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Montedio Yamagata1.09
Tokushima Vortis0.96
1X2
Montedio Yamagata
Draw
Tokushima Vortis
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Montedio Yamagata
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Tokushima Vortis
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montedio Yamagata
1–2–3
Tokushima Vortis
(6 last)
- Tokushima Vortis1-0Montedio Yamagata
- Montedio Yamagata0-0Tokushima Vortis
- Montedio Yamagata1-0Tokushima Vortis
- Tokushima Vortis2-1Montedio Yamagata
- Montedio Yamagata0-1Tokushima Vortis
- Tokushima Vortis1-1Montedio Yamagata
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montedio Yamagata 1428 · Tokushima Vortis 1469
| Montedio Yamagata | Draw | Tokushima Vortis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 33% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tokushima Vortis (rating 1428 vs 1469).
- H2H favours Tokushima Vortis: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montedio Yamagata | Tokushima Vortis | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.1 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montedio Yamagata 1–2–3 Tokushima Vortis
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Japan J2-League | Tokushima Vortis | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 23/03/25 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tokushima Vortis |
| 11/08/24 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tokushima Vortis |
| 28/04/24 Japan J2-League | Tokushima Vortis | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 01/10/23 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tokushima Vortis |
| 17/06/23 Japan J2-League | Tokushima Vortis | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Montedio Yamagata |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 25 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Shonan Bellmare | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Iwaki FC | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
| 9 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| 10 | Oita | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 13 | Sagan Tosu | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| 14 | Tokushima Vortis | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 14 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montedio Yamagata | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Vanraure Hachinohe | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Fujieda MYFC | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Vegalta Sendai | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Albirex Niigata | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Ventforet Kofu | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tokushima Vortis (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montedio Yamagata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/10 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Oita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
Tokushima Vortis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 21/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 17/10 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
1-4 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montedio Yamagata win (38%). Probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 38%, draw 31%, Tokushima Vortis 31%.
How many goals are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Montedio Yamagata 1.09 · Tokushima Vortis 0.96), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.