Football · Japan J2-League · 03/11, 06:00
Prediction: Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki FC
Team pages: Omiya Ardija · Iwaki FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Omiya Ardija1.78
Iwaki FC1.25
1X2
Omiya Ardija
Draw
Iwaki FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Omiya Ardija
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Iwaki FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Omiya Ardija
1–2–3
Iwaki FC
(6 last)
- Omiya Ardija3-2Iwaki FC
- Iwaki FC1-1Omiya Ardija
- Omiya Ardija1-2Iwaki FC
- Iwaki FC2-1Omiya Ardija
- Omiya Ardija2-2Iwaki FC
- Omiya Ardija1-5Iwaki FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Omiya Ardija 1509 · Iwaki FC 1505
| Omiya Ardija | Draw | Iwaki FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Iwaki FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Omiya Ardija | Iwaki FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 3.2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Omiya Ardija 1–2–3 Iwaki FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Omiya Ardija | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Iwaki FC |
| 07/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Iwaki FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Omiya Ardija |
| 05/07/25 Japan J2-League | Omiya Ardija | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Iwaki FC |
| 29/04/25 Japan J2-League | Iwaki FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Omiya Ardija |
| 26/03/25 Japan J-League Cup | Omiya Ardija | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Iwaki FC |
| 24/06/23 Japan J2-League | Omiya Ardija | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Iwaki FC |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 25 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Shonan Bellmare | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Iwaki FC | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
| 9 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| 10 | Oita | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 13 | Sagan Tosu | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| 14 | Tokushima Vortis | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 14 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Omiya Ardija | Iwaki FC |
|---|---|---|
| Vegalta Sendai | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Yokohama FC | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Sagan Tosu | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Ventforet Kofu | 5-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Blaublitz Akita | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Iwaki FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Omiya Ardija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/10 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Oita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
Iwaki FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/10 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 11/10 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/10 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 26/09 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Omiya Ardija win (49%). Probabilities: Omiya Ardija 49%, draw 26%, Iwaki FC 26%.
How many goals are expected in Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki FC?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Omiya Ardija 1.78 · Iwaki FC 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.