Prediction: Ironbound vs Staten Island ASC
Expected goals: 3.6 (Ironbound 2.47 · Staten Island ASC 1.13). The model gives 66% home, 19% draw, 15% away. Over 3.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Ironbound with 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses over 10 games; Staten Island ASC has piled up 2-1-7 in the same span. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Ironbound and 2 for Staten Island ASC.
| Ironbound | Draw | Staten Island ASC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ironbound (rating 1595 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Staten Island ASC: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ironbound | Staten Island ASC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 0.8 / 2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ironbound 1–0–2 Staten Island ASC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 USA USL League Two | Staten Island ASC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Ironbound |
| 29/05/25 USA USL League Two | Staten Island ASC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Ironbound |
| 19/06/24 USA USL League Two | Ironbound | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Staten Island ASC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Metropolitan Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ironbound | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Motown STA | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Long Island Rough Riders | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Hudson Valley Hammers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 17 |
| 5 | Cedar Stars Rush | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| 6 | Manhattan SC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 12 |
| 7 | New Jersey Copa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 25 | 7 |
| 8 | Staten Island ASC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 7 |
| 9 | Morris Elite | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 6 |
| 10 | Westchester Flames | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ironbound | Staten Island ASC |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Copa | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| FC Motown STA | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Westchester Flames | 3-3 D | 3-1 W |
| Cedar Stars Rush | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Long Island Rough Riders | 2-2 D | 0-6 L |
| Hudson Valley Hammers | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Manhattan SC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ironbound (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ironbound
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
3-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Staten Island ASC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 16/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 04/06 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 01/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/05 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Ironbound USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ironbound vs Staten Island ASC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ironbound win (66%). Probabilities: Ironbound 66%, draw 19%, Staten Island ASC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Ironbound vs Staten Island ASC?
The model expects 3.6 goals (Ironbound 2.47 · Staten Island ASC 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ironbound vs Staten Island ASC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.