Football · Brazil Serie A3 Women · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Tiradentes PA (W) vs Portuguesa AP (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Tiradentes PA (W)2.06

Portuguesa AP (W)1.91

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Tiradentes PA (W) Draw Portuguesa AP (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tiradentes PA (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWDWL

Portuguesa AP (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Tiradentes PA (W) 0–1–2 Portuguesa AP (W) (3 last)

Portuguesa AP (W)5-2Tiradentes PA (W)
Portuguesa AP (W)2-2Tiradentes PA (W)
Tiradentes PA (W)2-3Portuguesa AP (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tiradentes PA (W) 1527 · Portuguesa AP (W) 1556

	Tiradentes PA (W)	Draw	Portuguesa AP (W)
Our model	42%	22%	36%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Portuguesa AP (W): 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tiradentes PA (W)	Portuguesa AP (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	2.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/17/17%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	3.5 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.7	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:48 +5’	2.25	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tiradentes PA (W) 0–1–2 Portuguesa AP (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Brazil Serie A3 Women	Portuguesa AP (W)	5-2	Tiradentes PA (W)
18/04/26 Brazil Serie A3 Women	Portuguesa AP (W)	2-2 HT 1-2	Tiradentes PA (W)
04/04/26 Brazil Serie A3 Women	Tiradentes PA (W)	2-3 HT 2-2	Portuguesa AP (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A3 Women · Brasileiro A3, Women 2026, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tiradentes PA (W)	6	4	1	1	17	5	13
2	Portuguesa AP (W)	6	3	3	0	15	10	12
3	Sao Raimundo RR (W)	6	1	2	3	8	16	5
4	Ypiranga AP (W)	6	0	2	4	6	15	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tiradentes PA (W)	Portuguesa AP (W)
Sampaio Correa (W)	2-1 W	2-3 L
Sao Raimundo RR (W)	6-0 W	2-2 D
Ypiranga AP (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tiradentes PA (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tiradentes PA (W)

WWLDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Portuguesa AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	2-5	–	–	L
31/05	Sampaio Correa (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Sampaio Correa (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
02/05	Sao Raimundo RR (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	2-0	6-0	6	5	W
29/04	Planalto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	–	2-4	–	–	L
25/04	Ypiranga AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	3-0	–	–	W
18/04	Portuguesa AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
04/04	Portuguesa AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	2-2	2-3	–	–	L
29/03	Ypiranga AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
21/03	Sao Raimundo RR (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	1-0	2-0	4	2	W

Portuguesa AP (W)

DDWDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tiradentes PA (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	5-2	–	–	W
03/07	A.E.C Sao Joaquim do Pacui (W) Brazil Campeonato Amapaense Women	2-0	2-0	11	6	W
31/05	Sao Joao PI (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	3-3	–	–	D
16/05	Sao Joao PI (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	3-2	–	–	W
02/05	Ypiranga AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
23/04	Sampaio Correa (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
18/04	Tiradentes PA (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
04/04	Tiradentes PA (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
28/03	Sao Raimundo RR (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
22/03	Ypiranga AP (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women	2-2	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tiradentes PA (W) vs Portuguesa AP (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tiradentes PA (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Tiradentes PA (W) 41%, draw 24%, Portuguesa AP (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Tiradentes PA (W) vs Portuguesa AP (W)?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Tiradentes PA (W) 2.06 · Portuguesa AP (W) 1.91), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tiradentes PA (W) vs Portuguesa AP (W)?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.