Prediction: Ballard FC vs Tacoma Stars
Expected goals: 3.78 (Ballard FC 2.5 · Tacoma Stars 1.28). The model gives 64% home, 19% draw, 18% away. Over 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Ballard FC is 8-1-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Tacoma Stars 3-2-5 over its own. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Ballard FC won 2 and Tacoma Stars 1, with 2 draws.
| Ballard FC | Draw | Tacoma Stars | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ballard FC (rating 1590 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Ballard FC: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ballard FC | Tacoma Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1 | 2.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/0/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.3 | 1.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballard FC 2–2–1 Tacoma Stars
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 USA USL League Two | Tacoma Stars | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ballard FC |
| 03/07/25 USA USL League Two | Ballard FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Stars |
| 25/06/25 USA USL League Two | Tacoma Stars | 0-11 HT 0-7 | Ballard FC |
| 09/06/24 USA USL League Two | Ballard FC | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Tacoma Stars |
| 19/05/24 USA USL League Two | Tacoma Stars | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ballard FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northwest Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snohomish United | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Ballard FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Portland Bangers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Tacoma Stars | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 12 |
| 5 | Midlakes United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 10 |
| 6 | West Seattle Junction FC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 9 |
| 7 | FC Olympia | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 32 | 10 |
| 8 | Bigfoot FC | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 35 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ballard FC | Tacoma Stars |
|---|---|---|
| West Seattle Junction FC | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Bigfoot FC | 6-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Portland Bangers | 2-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Snohomish United | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Olympia | 2-1 W | 5-4 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ballard FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ballard FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Midlakes United USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 25/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
5-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/06 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Snohomish United USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 04/06 | Tacoma Stars USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 01/06 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Midlakes United USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
Tacoma Stars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Snohomish United USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Snohomish United USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 29/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 21/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 5-4 | – | – | W |
| 08/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 04/06 | Ballard FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 31/05 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ballard FC vs Tacoma Stars?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ballard FC win (64%). Probabilities: Ballard FC 64%, draw 19%, Tacoma Stars 18%.
How many goals are expected in Ballard FC vs Tacoma Stars?
The model expects 3.78 goals (Ballard FC 2.5 · Tacoma Stars 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ballard FC vs Tacoma Stars?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.