Prediction: Virginia Dream vs Virginia Atlantic
Expected goals: 4.1 (Virginia Dream 2.64 · Virginia Atlantic 1.46). The model gives 62% home, 19% draw, 19% away. Over 3.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Virginia Dream sits at 6-1-3 (W-D-L), while Virginia Atlantic arrives on a 6-0-4 run. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Virginia Dream and 0 for Virginia Atlantic.
| Virginia Dream | Draw | Virginia Atlantic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Market | 62% | 19% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virginia Dream (rating 1561 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Virginia Dream: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia Dream | Virginia Atlantic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 3.4 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia Dream 4–0–0 Virginia Atlantic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/25 USA NPSL | Virginia Dream | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Virginia Atlantic |
| 20/06/24 USA NPSL | Virginia Dream | 7-0 HT 2-0 | Virginia Atlantic |
| 17/06/24 USA NPSL | Virginia Atlantic | 3-4 HT 2-3 | Virginia Dream |
| 14/05/23 USA NPSL | Virginia Atlantic | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Virginia Dream |
Standings · USA NPSL · NPSL 2026, Mid-Atlantic Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ristozi FC | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Virginia Dream | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Virginia Atlantic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Alexandria Reds | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | District Elite | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Frederick | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 29 | 14 |
| 7 | Grove Soccer United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 13 |
| 8 | Hub City FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 7 |
| 9 | DMV Elite FC | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virginia Dream | Virginia Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Hub City FC | 5-3 W | 3-1 W |
| Ristozi FC | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Alexandria Reds | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Grove Soccer United | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Frederick | 6-1 W | 2-4 L |
| DMV Elite FC | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| District Elite | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Virginia Atlantic (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia Dream
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
2-2 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Alexandria Reds USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
2-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | District Elite USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/05 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
3-1 | 7-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Virginia Atlantic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | District Elite USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
0-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Alexandria Reds USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Alexandria Reds USA NPSL |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Virginia Dream USA NPSL |
0-2 | 0-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Virginia Dream vs Virginia Atlantic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Virginia Dream win (62%). Probabilities: Virginia Dream 62%, draw 19%, Virginia Atlantic 19%.
How many goals are expected in Virginia Dream vs Virginia Atlantic?
The model expects 4.1 goals (Virginia Dream 2.64 · Virginia Atlantic 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Virginia Dream vs Virginia Atlantic?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.