Football · Brazil Paulista Women · 29/07, 00:00

Prediction: Bragantino (W) vs Santos (W)

Team pages: Bragantino (W) · Santos (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Bragantino (W)1.51

Santos (W)1.15

1X2

45% 28% 28%

Bragantino (W) Draw Santos (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWDWW

Santos (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDLDWW

Head-to-head

Bragantino (W) 5–1 Santos (W) (6 last)

Santos (W)0-1Bragantino (W)
Santos (W)2-3Bragantino (W)
Bragantino (W)3-2Santos (W)
Santos (W)0-1Bragantino (W)
Santos (W)3-0Bragantino (W)
Bragantino (W)4-1Santos (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino (W) 1554 · Santos (W) 1469

	Bragantino (W)	Draw	Santos (W)
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (W) (rating 1554 vs 1469).
H2H favours Bragantino (W): 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino (W)	Santos (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.20 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +8’	2.00	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:02	2.15	3.06	3.00
22:01 +1’	2.13▼	2.87▼	2.94▼
22:59 +2’	2.20▲	3.01▲	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino (W) 5–0–1 Santos (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Santos (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Bragantino (W)
30/11/25 Brazil Paulista Cup Women	Santos (W)	2-3 HT 0-3	Bragantino (W)
16/11/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Bragantino (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Santos (W)
02/10/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Santos (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Bragantino (W)
10/11/24 Brazil Paulista Women	Santos (W)	3-0 HT 3-0	Bragantino (W)
05/11/24 Brazil Paulista Women	Bragantino (W)	4-1 HT 2-0	Santos (W)

Standings · Brazil Paulista Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferroviaria (W)	4	3	0	1	8	3	9
2	Sao Paulo (W)	5	3	0	2	6	4	9
3	Corinthians (W)	4	2	1	1	10	4	7
4	Palmeiras (W)	4	2	1	1	7	2	7
5	Santos (W)	5	1	3	1	5	5	6
6	Bragantino (W)	5	1	3	1	4	9	6
7	Taubate (W)	4	1	1	2	4	4	4
8	Mirassol (W)	5	0	1	4	1	14	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino (W)	Santos (W)
Palmeiras (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sao Paulo (W)	1-0 W	0-3 L
Corinthians (W)	0-6 L	2-2 D
Taubate (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bragantino (W)

DLLWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Botafogo (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
27/05	Sao Jose SP (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	4-1	7	1	W
24/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
22/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
17/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
14/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-3	0-6	8	1	L
10/05	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
06/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	1-1	10	0	D

Santos (W)

LLWDLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
28/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
25/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
22/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
17/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
15/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
09/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-0	0	3	W
07/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
01/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-3	0-3	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino (W) vs Santos (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Bragantino (W) 45%, draw 28%, Santos (W) 28%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino (W) vs Santos (W)?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Bragantino (W) 1.51 · Santos (W) 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino (W) vs Santos (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.