Prediction: Ulfarnir vs Hamar Hveragerdi
Expected goals: 4.61 (Ulfarnir 1.55 · Hamar Hveragerdi 3.06). The model gives 16% home, 16% draw, 67% away. Under 4.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-3.
Over its last 10 matches, Ulfarnir sits at 3-4-3 (W-D-L), while Hamar Hveragerdi arrives on a 8-0-2 run. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ulfarnir won 1 and Hamar Hveragerdi 0, with 1 draw.
| Ulfarnir | Draw | Hamar Hveragerdi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 16% | 67% |
| Market | 16% | 16% | 67% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamar Hveragerdi (rating 1509 vs 1597).
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulfarnir | Hamar Hveragerdi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 2.1 | 4.3 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.6 | 3.2 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulfarnir 1–1–0 Hamar Hveragerdi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Iceland Cup | Ulfarnir | 4-2 HT 0-0 | Hamar Hveragerdi |
| 15/03/17 Iceland League Cup | Ulfarnir | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hamar Hveragerdi |
Standings · Iceland 4 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alftanes | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Hamar Hveragerdi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Arborg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ulfarnir | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 10 |
| 5 | Vaengir Jupiters | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 10 |
| 6 | Ellidi | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 10 |
| 7 | KFR Hvolsvöllur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 26 | 8 |
| 8 | IH Hafnarfjordur | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 6 |
| 9 | KF Hafnir | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 5 |
| 10 | Alafoss | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulfarnir | Hamar Hveragerdi |
|---|---|---|
| Alafoss | 2-2 D | 6-1 W |
| Vaengir Jupiters | 3-3 D | 5-1 W |
| KFR Hvolsvöllur | 3-3 D | 5-2 W |
| Alftanes | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Ellidi | 5-4 W | 4-0 W |
| Arborg | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| IH Hafnarfjordur | 4-2 W | 7-4 W |
| KF Hafnir | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 7 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Hamar Hveragerdi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulfarnir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 19/06 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
2-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 12/06 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 05/06 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild |
4-3 | 5-4 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
1-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 26/03 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/03 | Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
Hamar Hveragerdi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Ellidi Iceland 4 Deild |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Alafoss Iceland 4 Deild |
3-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 11/06 | Arborg Iceland 4 Deild |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Vaengir Jupiters Iceland 4 Deild |
2-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | IH Hafnarfjordur Iceland 4 Deild |
2-3 | 7-4 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | KFR Hvolsvöllur Iceland 4 Deild |
4-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | KF Hafnir Iceland 4 Deild |
3-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/05 | Alftanes Iceland 4 Deild |
0-4 | 1-5 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 08/04 | Smari Iceland League Cup C |
4-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/03 | Ulfarnir Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulfarnir vs Hamar Hveragerdi?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamar Hveragerdi win (67%). Probabilities: Ulfarnir 16%, draw 16%, Hamar Hveragerdi 67%.
How many goals are expected in Ulfarnir vs Hamar Hveragerdi?
The model expects 4.61 goals (Ulfarnir 1.55 · Hamar Hveragerdi 3.06), with a 53% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulfarnir vs Hamar Hveragerdi?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.