Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 14/08, 20:45
Prediction: Derry City (W) vs Linfield (W)
Team pages: Derry City (W) · Linfield (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.43Total
Derry City (W)1.21
Linfield (W)3.21
1X2
Derry City (W)
Draw
Linfield (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Linfield (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derry City (W)
0–6
Linfield (W)
(6 last)
- Linfield (W)5-0Derry City (W)
- Linfield (W)5-1Derry City (W)
- Derry City (W)0-4Linfield (W)
- Linfield (W)9-0Derry City (W)
- Derry City (W)1-3Linfield (W)
- Linfield (W)5-1Derry City (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derry City (W) 1479 · Linfield (W) 1570
| Derry City (W) | Draw | Linfield (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 4% | 6% | 90% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Linfield (W) (rating 1479 vs 1570).
- H2H favours Linfield (W): 6-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City (W) | Linfield (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 2 | 4.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 2.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 90/10/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City (W) 0–0–6 Linfield (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Linfield (W) | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Derry City (W) |
| 08/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Linfield (W) | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Derry City (W) |
| 20/06/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Linfield (W) |
| 02/05/25 Northern Ireland League Cup Women | Linfield (W) | 9-0 HT 3-0 | Derry City (W) |
| 27/09/24 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Linfield (W) |
| 28/06/24 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Linfield (W) | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Derry City (W) |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cliftonville (W) | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Linfield (W) | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 47 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Glentoran (W) | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Lisburn Rangers (W) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 34 | 12 |
| 6 | Derry City (W) | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 27 | 10 |
| 7 | Lisburn (W) | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 4 |
| 8 | Larne FC (W) | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derry City (W) | Linfield (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lisburn Rangers (W) | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Glentoran (W) | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Larne FC (W) | 7-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Crusaders Strikers (W) | 3-3 D | 4-0 W |
| Cliftonville (W) | 1-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Lisburn (W) | 1-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Linfield (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Cup Women |
6-0 | 9-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
Linfield (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
6-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/08 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/07 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 9-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 8-1 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | Galway (W) Women’s Friendly |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Sligo Rovers (W) Women’s Friendly |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City (W) vs Linfield (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Linfield (W) win (83%). Probabilities: Derry City (W) 7%, draw 10%, Linfield (W) 83%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City (W) vs Linfield (W)?
The model expects 4.43 goals (Derry City (W) 1.21 · Linfield (W) 3.21), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City (W) vs Linfield (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.