Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women · 02/08, 07:00

Prediction: Tuggeranong Utd (W) vs Belconnen United (W)

Team pages: Tuggeranong Utd (W) · Belconnen United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.88Total

Tuggeranong Utd (W)1.44

Belconnen United (W)3.44

1X2

7% 9% 84%

Tuggeranong Utd (W) Draw Belconnen United (W)

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Tuggeranong Utd (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLLDWL

Belconnen United (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Tuggeranong Utd (W) 0–6 Belconnen United (W) (6 last)

Belconnen United (W)8-0Tuggeranong Utd (W)
Tuggeranong Utd (W)0-4Belconnen United (W)
Belconnen United (W)7-2Tuggeranong Utd (W)
Belconnen United (W)20-0Tuggeranong Utd (W)
Belconnen United (W)8-0Tuggeranong Utd (W)
Tuggeranong Utd (W)0-5Belconnen United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tuggeranong Utd (W) 1433 · Belconnen United (W) 1624

	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	Draw	Belconnen United (W)
Our model	12%	14%	75%
Market	3%	4%	92%

Estimated total (ours) 4.88 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belconnen United (W) (rating 1433 vs 1624).
H2H favours Belconnen United (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	Belconnen United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	6.1 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	3.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.8	4.2 / 9.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

129.00

X21.00

21.01

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.75)1.85

2 (-4.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 5.251.90

Under 5.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	41.00 → 29.00▼	Bet365 29.00
X	26.00 → 21.00▼	Bet365 21.00
2	1.02 → 1.01▼	Bet365 1.01

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:35 +2’	41.00	26.00	1.02
03:31 +5’	41.00	26.00	1.01▼
14:23 +3’	29.00▼	21.00▼	1.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tuggeranong Utd (W) 0–0–6 Belconnen United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	8-0 HT 5-0	Tuggeranong Utd (W)
20/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Belconnen United (W)
12/04/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	7-2 HT 5-0	Tuggeranong Utd (W)
15/06/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	20-0 HT 8-0	Tuggeranong Utd (W)
23/06/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	8-0 HT 1-0	Tuggeranong Utd (W)
05/05/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	0-5 HT 0-1	Belconnen United (W)

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Belconnen United (W)	15	13	2	0	89	5	41
2	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	16	12	3	1	68	6	39
3	Canberra Olympic (W)	16	9	2	5	38	16	29
4	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	16	3	3	10	15	48	12
5	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W)	15	3	2	10	10	57	11
6	Majura FC (W)	16	0	2	14	1	89	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	Belconnen United (W)
Canberra Croatia FC (W)	0-4 L	1-1 D
Majura FC (W)	5-0 W	10-0 W
West Canberra Wanderers FC (W)	2-2 D	7-0 W
Canberra Olympic (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Belconnen United (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tuggeranong Utd (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Canberra Croatia FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-3	0-4	1	0	L
12/07	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	3-0	5-0	11	0	W
05/07	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-1	2-2	3	0	D
27/06	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
21/06	Belconnen United (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-5	0-8	0	0	L
14/06	Canberra Croatia FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	1	0	L
31/05	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	11	0	D
24/05	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	0	1	L
20/05	Belconnen United (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-1	0-4	0	0	L
17/05	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	0	3	D

Belconnen United (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Canberra Croatia FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
05/07	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
28/06	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	6-0	10-0	13	0	W
21/06	Tuggeranong Utd (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	5-0	8-0	18	0	W
14/06	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	4-0	7-0	5	1	W
31/05	Canberra Croatia FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
24/05	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
20/05	Tuggeranong Utd (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	4-0	9	0	W
17/05	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	11-0	17-0	–	–	W
10/05	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	7-0	8-1	14	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tuggeranong Utd (W) vs Belconnen United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Belconnen United (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Tuggeranong Utd (W) 7%, draw 9%, Belconnen United (W) 84%.

How many goals are expected in Tuggeranong Utd (W) vs Belconnen United (W)?

The model expects 4.88 goals (Tuggeranong Utd (W) 1.44 · Belconnen United (W) 3.44), with a 55% chance of under 5.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tuggeranong Utd (W) vs Belconnen United (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.