Football · Chile Primera Division Women · 16/08, 21:00

Prediction: Universidad de Chile (W) vs Union Espanola (W)

Team pages: Universidad de Chile (W) · Union Espanola (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Universidad de Chile (W)2.65

Union Espanola (W)0.83

1X2

75% 17% 8%

Universidad de Chile (W) Draw Union Espanola (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad de Chile (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLDL

Union Espanola (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDLLDL

Head-to-head

Universidad de Chile (W) 4–2–0 Union Espanola (W) (6 last)

Union Espanola (W)1-1Universidad de Chile (W)
Universidad de Chile (W)3-0Union Espanola (W)
Union Espanola (W)2-3Universidad de Chile (W)
Universidad de Chile (W)3-1Union Espanola (W)
Union Espanola (W)1-1Universidad de Chile (W)
Universidad de Chile (W)1-0Union Espanola (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad de Chile (W) 1561 · Union Espanola (W) 1462

	Universidad de Chile (W)	Draw	Union Espanola (W)
Our model	75%	16%	9%
Market	75%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (W) (rating 1561 vs 1462).
H2H favours Universidad de Chile (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad de Chile (W)	Union Espanola (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.3 / 8	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:45 +8’	1.20	5.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Chile (W) 4–2–0 Union Espanola (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Chile Primera Division Women	Union Espanola (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile (W)
22/11/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad de Chile (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Union Espanola (W)
14/11/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Union Espanola (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Universidad de Chile (W)
16/08/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad de Chile (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Union Espanola (W)
23/03/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Union Espanola (W)	1-1	Universidad de Chile (W)
06/11/24 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad de Chile (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Union Espanola (W)

Standings · Chile Primera Division Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo (W)	20	19	1	0	76	4	58
2	Universidad Catolica (W)	21	17	0	4	48	13	51
3	Universidad de Chile (W)	19	13	3	3	54	19	42
4	Coquimbo Unido (W)	20	11	5	4	38	19	38
5	Palestino (W)	19	7	5	7	25	28	26
6	Huachipato (W)	19	7	5	7	22	31	26
7	Union Espanola (W)	19	7	5	7	18	21	26
8	Magallanes (W)	21	6	3	12	23	48	21
9	Santiago Wanderers (W)	20	5	5	10	17	31	20
10	Deportes Iquique (W)	17	6	2	9	24	25	20
11	Universidad de Concepcion (W)	19	4	4	11	13	33	16
12	Deportes Temuco (W)	19	2	2	15	16	52	8
13	Deportes Recoleta (W)	19	2	0	17	19	69	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad de Chile (W)	Union Espanola (W)
Colo Colo (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Palestino (W)	0-0 D	0-1 L
Coquimbo Unido (W)	4-6 L	0-4 L
Magallanes (W)	5-1 W	3-0 W
Universidad de Concepcion (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Deportes Temuco (W)	6-1 W	1-1 D
Deportes Recoleta (W)	4-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad de Chile (W)

WWLWWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
02/08	Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
28/07	Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-3	4-6	12	3	L
11/07	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	2-1	6-1	9	1	W
08/07	Magallanes (W) Chile Primera Division Women	3-1	5-1	8	1	W
03/07	Universidad de Concepcion (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
27/06	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	2-0	6-1	7	0	W
21/06	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-2	0-4	2	5	L
13/06	Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	3-1	5	7	W
23/05	Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	3-0	4-1	11	3	W

Union Espanola (W)

WWWWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
09/08	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
01/08	Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-3	0-4	4	4	L
25/07	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
11/07	Santiago Wanderers (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
08/07	Deportes Iquique (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Magallanes (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
19/06	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
13/06	Universidad de Concepcion (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/05	Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	3-1	5-2	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad de Chile (W) vs Union Espanola (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad de Chile (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Universidad de Chile (W) 75%, draw 17%, Union Espanola (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad de Chile (W) vs Union Espanola (W)?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Universidad de Chile (W) 2.65 · Union Espanola (W) 0.83), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile (W) vs Union Espanola (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.