Prediction: Northern Virginia FC vs Patuxent Football Athletics
Expected goals: 4.57 (Northern Virginia FC 2.94 · Patuxent Football Athletics 1.63). The model gives 64% home, 17% draw, 19% away. Under 4.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Northern Virginia FC is 3-3-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Patuxent Football Athletics 0-0-10 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Northern Virginia FC won 5 and Patuxent Football Athletics 1.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northern Virginia FC (rating 1509 vs 1368).
- H2H favours Northern Virginia FC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northern Virginia FC | Patuxent Football Athletics | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 2.1 | 0.2 / 4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 0/10/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 6 | 1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Virginia FC 5–0–1 Patuxent Football Athletics
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 USA USL League Two | Patuxent Football Athletics | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Northern Virginia FC |
| 26/06/25 USA USL League Two | Patuxent Football Athletics | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Northern Virginia FC |
| 12/06/25 USA USL League Two | Northern Virginia FC | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Patuxent Football Athletics |
| 14/07/24 USA USL League Two | Patuxent Football Athletics | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Northern Virginia FC |
| 18/05/24 USA USL League Two | Northern Virginia FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Patuxent Football Athletics |
| 02/07/23 USA USL League Two | Patuxent Football Athletics | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Northern Virginia FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Chesapeake Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionsbridge FC | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 31 |
| 2 | Virginia Beach Utd | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 23 |
| 3 | Charlottesville Blues | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Bethesda SC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 5 | Christos FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 31 | 20 |
| 6 | Annapolis Blues | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 18 | 19 |
| 7 | Loudoun United FC II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 25 | 16 |
| 8 | Hill City FC | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 18 |
| 9 | Northern Virginia FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 15 |
| 10 | Virginia Marauders | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 35 | 3 |
| 11 | Patuxent Football Athletics | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northern Virginia FC | Patuxent Football Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Hill City FC | 3-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Annapolis Blues | 3-0 W | 0-7 L |
| Christos FC | 5-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Lionsbridge FC | 4-5 L | 0-6 L |
| Bethesda SC | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Loudoun United FC II | 3-3 D | 1-7 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Northern Virginia FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northern Virginia FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Annapolis Blues USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/06 | Christos FC USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Lionsbridge FC USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 4-5 | – | – | L |
| 10/06 | Charlottesville Blues USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Charlottesville Blues USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/06 | Patuxent Football Athletics USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Bethesda SC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Loudoun United FC II USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Virginia Beach Utd USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Patuxent Football Athletics
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Bethesda SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | Loudoun United FC II USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 1-7 | – | – | L |
| 18/06 | Lionsbridge FC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Christos FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | Virginia Marauders USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Annapolis Blues USA USL League Two |
0-4 | 0-7 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 04/06 | Northern Virginia FC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Annapolis Blues USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
0-4 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northern Virginia FC vs Patuxent Football Athletics?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Northern Virginia FC win (64%). Probabilities: Northern Virginia FC 64%, draw 17%, Patuxent Football Athletics 19%.
How many goals are expected in Northern Virginia FC vs Patuxent Football Athletics?
The model expects 4.57 goals (Northern Virginia FC 2.94 · Patuxent Football Athletics 1.63), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Northern Virginia FC vs Patuxent Football Athletics?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.