Football · China Super League · 07/08, 13:35
Prediction: Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Team pages: Beijing Guoan · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.27Total
Beijing Guoan2.05
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.21
1X2
Beijing Guoan
Draw
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Beijing Guoan
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Beijing Guoan
2–1–3
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
(6 last)
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0-1Beijing Guoan
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2-1Beijing Guoan
- Beijing Guoan3-1Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1-0Beijing Guoan
- Beijing Guoan1-2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Beijing Guoan1-1Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Guoan (rating 1567 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Shenzhen Xinpengcheng: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Beijing Guoan | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.4 | 3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Guoan 2–1–3 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 China Super League | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 18/10/25 China Super League | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 10/05/25 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
| 26/07/24 China Super League | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 09/04/24 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
| 14/10/21 China FA Cup | Beijing Guoan | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 42 | 21 | 45 |
| 2 | Qingdao West Coast | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 29 |
| 4 | Dalian Young Boy | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 29 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 41 | 28 |
| 6 | Shandong Taishan | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 27 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34 | 27 | 26 |
| 8 | Zhejiang | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 36 | 24 |
| 9 | Henan | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | Liaoning Ironman | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 21 |
| 11 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 37 | 20 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 19 |
| 13 | Shanghai Shenhua | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 19 |
| 14 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 17 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | 15 |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 40 | 14 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Beijing Guoan | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
|---|---|---|
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Beijing Guoan (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Beijing Guoan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/07 | Dalian Kewei China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Guangdong GZ-Power China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Henan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 21/07 | Shanghai Port China FA Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 19/06 | Shenzhen Juniors China FA Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Beijing Guoan win (56%). Probabilities: Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 23%, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 21%.
How many goals are expected in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?
The model expects 3.27 goals (Beijing Guoan 2.05 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1.21), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.