Football · China Super League · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun

Team pages: Beijing Guoan · Yunnan Yukun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

Beijing Guoan2.92

Yunnan Yukun1.41

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Beijing Guoan Draw Yunnan Yukun

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Guoan 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDWWW

Yunnan Yukun 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWLWW

Head-to-head

Beijing Guoan 3–1–0 Yunnan Yukun (4 last)

Yunnan Yukun3-3Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan7-0Yunnan Yukun
Beijing Guoan2-1Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun0-2Beijing Guoan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Guoan 1612 · Yunnan Yukun 1520

	Beijing Guoan	Draw	Yunnan Yukun
Our model	68%	17%	16%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Guoan (rating 1612 vs 1520).
H2H favours Beijing Guoan: 3-1-0.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beijing Guoan	Yunnan Yukun
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	2.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	1.1 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.7	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +8’	1.38	5.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Guoan 3–1–0 Yunnan Yukun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 China Super League	Yunnan Yukun	3-3 HT 1-1	Beijing Guoan
20/08/25 China FA Cup	Beijing Guoan	7-0 HT 3-0	Yunnan Yukun
30/06/25 China Super League	Beijing Guoan	2-1 HT 0-1	Yunnan Yukun
22/02/25 China Super League	Yunnan Yukun	0-2 HT 0-0	Beijing Guoan

Standings · China Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	23	14	6	3	45	24	48
2	Yunnan Yukun	23	10	4	9	46	42	34
3	Shandong Taishan	23	12	3	8	42	38	33
4	Qingdao West Coast	23	7	12	4	26	29	33
5	Beijing Guoan	22	10	7	5	42	29	32
6	Dalian Young Boy	22	10	2	10	33	39	32
7	Chongqing Tonglianglong	23	7	9	7	25	27	30
8	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	23	8	2	13	32	42	26
9	Shanghai Port	22	8	6	8	36	31	25
10	Shanghai Shenhua	22	10	5	7	42	35	25
11	Zhejiang	22	8	5	9	33	39	24
12	Liaoning Ironman	22	7	3	12	29	35	24
13	Henan	22	8	5	9	27	29	23
14	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	22	7	6	9	32	30	17
15	Wuhan Three Towns	21	4	8	9	30	38	15
16	Qingdao Hainiu	23	6	3	14	31	44	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beijing Guoan	Yunnan Yukun
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	4-2 W	2-3 L
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	4-0 W	4-3 W
Chengdu Rongcheng	2-2 D	1-0 W
Shandong Taishan	2-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Beijing Guoan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Beijing Guoan

WWWWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	2-0	4-2	1	2	W
07/08	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League	2-0	4-0	5	5	W
01/08	Zhejiang China Super League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
26/07	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
21/07	Dalian Kewei China FA Cup	1-0	2-1	9	0	W
17/07	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
04/07	Shandong Taishan China Super League	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
27/06	Wuhan Three Towns China Super League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
19/06	Guangdong GZ-Power China FA Cup	1-0	2-1	12	5	W
30/05	Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League	1-0	3-2	8	4	W

Yunnan Yukun

WLWLDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	0-1	3-1	9	5	W
08/08	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
26/07	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League	2-1	4-3	3	5	W
21/07	Chengdu Rongcheng China FA Cup	2-2	3-3	5	3	D
17/07	Shanghai Port China Super League	0-2	2-2	6	2	D
10/07	Shandong Taishan China Super League	1-3	3-4	14	1	L
03/07	Henan China Super League	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
26/06	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	2-4	2-4	4	6	L
21/06	Suzhou Dongwu China FA Cup	3-2	4-2	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beijing Guoan win (67%). Probabilities: Beijing Guoan 67%, draw 18%, Yunnan Yukun 15%.

How many goals are expected in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?

The model expects 4.33 goals (Beijing Guoan 2.92 · Yunnan Yukun 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.