Football · China Super League · 22/08, 13:35

Prediction: Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua

Team pages: Chengdu Rongcheng · Shanghai Shenhua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Chengdu Rongcheng1.96

Shanghai Shenhua1.46

1X2

49% 23% 28%

Chengdu Rongcheng Draw Shanghai Shenhua

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chengdu Rongcheng 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDDDLW

Shanghai Shenhua 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Chengdu Rongcheng 2–3–1 Shanghai Shenhua (6 last)

Shanghai Shenhua2-3Chengdu Rongcheng
Shanghai Shenhua1-1Chengdu Rongcheng
Chengdu Rongcheng1-0Shanghai Shenhua
Chengdu Rongcheng1-2Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua1-1Chengdu Rongcheng
Shanghai Shenhua1-1Chengdu Rongcheng

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chengdu Rongcheng 1547 · Shanghai Shenhua 1528

	Chengdu Rongcheng	Draw	Shanghai Shenhua
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chengdu Rongcheng: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chengdu Rongcheng	Shanghai Shenhua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 8.1	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +7’	1.90	4.00	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chengdu Rongcheng 2–3–1 Shanghai Shenhua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 China Super League	Shanghai Shenhua	2-3 HT 2-1	Chengdu Rongcheng
21/09/25 China Super League	Shanghai Shenhua	1-1 HT 0-0	Chengdu Rongcheng
02/05/25 China Super League	Chengdu Rongcheng	1-0 HT 1-0	Shanghai Shenhua
02/11/24 China Super League	Chengdu Rongcheng	1-2 HT 1-1	Shanghai Shenhua
16/06/24 China Super League	Shanghai Shenhua	1-1 HT 1-1	Chengdu Rongcheng
26/08/23 China Super League	Shanghai Shenhua	1-1 HT 1-1	Chengdu Rongcheng

Standings · China Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	23	14	6	3	45	24	48
2	Yunnan Yukun	23	10	4	9	46	42	34
3	Shandong Taishan	23	12	3	8	42	38	33
4	Qingdao West Coast	23	7	12	4	26	29	33
5	Beijing Guoan	22	10	7	5	42	29	32
6	Dalian Young Boy	22	10	2	10	33	39	32
7	Chongqing Tonglianglong	23	7	9	7	25	27	30
8	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	23	8	2	13	32	42	26
9	Shanghai Port	22	8	6	8	36	31	25
10	Shanghai Shenhua	22	10	5	7	42	35	25
11	Zhejiang	22	8	5	9	33	39	24
12	Liaoning Ironman	22	7	3	12	29	35	24
13	Henan	22	8	5	9	27	29	23
14	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	22	7	6	9	32	30	17
15	Wuhan Three Towns	21	4	8	9	30	38	15
16	Qingdao Hainiu	23	6	3	14	31	44	14

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chengdu Rongcheng	Shanghai Shenhua
Zhejiang	3-2 W	3-2 W
Qingdao West Coast	1-1 D	2-2 D
Qingdao Hainiu	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shanghai Shenhua (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chengdu Rongcheng

WWDDDDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Zhejiang China Super League	1-2	3-2	7	5	W
08/08	Yunnan Yukun China Super League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
01/08	Wuhan Three Towns China Super League	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
26/07	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
21/07	Yunnan Yukun China FA Cup	2-2	3-3	11	3	D
17/07	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
11/07	Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League	1-0	1-1	15	3	D
05/07	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
27/06	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League	1-0	3-2	9	8	W
20/06	Shanghai Zetian China FA Cup	1-0	4-0	9	4	W

Shanghai Shenhua

DWWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Henan China Super League	1-1	4-1	2	2	W
08/08	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
02/08	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
25/07	Shanghai Port China Super League	0-2	0-2	9	3	L
21/07	Qingdao Hainiu China FA Cup	4-1	4-1	5	1	W
18/07	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
05/07	Zhejiang China Super League	1-0	3-2	7	2	W
28/06	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	2-1	4-1	2	2	W
20/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China FA Cup	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/05	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	1-1	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chengdu Rongcheng win (49%). Probabilities: Chengdu Rongcheng 49%, draw 23%, Shanghai Shenhua 28%.

How many goals are expected in Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Chengdu Rongcheng 1.96 · Shanghai Shenhua 1.46), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chengdu Rongcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.