Football · China Super League · 23/08, 13:35
Prediction: Shanghai Port vs Qingdao Hainiu
Team pages: Shanghai Port · Qingdao Hainiu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.83Total
Shanghai Port2.75
Qingdao Hainiu1.08
1X2
Shanghai Port
Draw
Qingdao Hainiu
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Shanghai Port
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Qingdao Hainiu
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shanghai Port
5–1
Qingdao Hainiu
(6 last)
- Qingdao Hainiu3-1Shanghai Port
- Qingdao Hainiu3-4Shanghai Port
- Shanghai Port3-1Qingdao Hainiu
- Shanghai Port5-0Qingdao Hainiu
- Qingdao Hainiu0-5Shanghai Port
- Qingdao Hainiu0-5Shanghai Port
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shanghai Port 1534 · Qingdao Hainiu 1426
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 17% | 12% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanghai Port (rating 1534 vs 1426).
- H2H favours Shanghai Port: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shanghai Port | Qingdao Hainiu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.5 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Port 5–0–1 Qingdao Hainiu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Shanghai Port |
| 17/10/25 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 3-4 HT 2-3 | Shanghai Port |
| 09/05/25 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 21/07/24 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 01/05/24 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Shanghai Port |
| 08/08/23 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Shanghai Port |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 45 | 24 | 48 |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 45 | 29 | 35 |
| 3 | Yunnan Yukun | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 42 | 34 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 38 | 33 |
| 5 | Qingdao West Coast | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 26 | 29 | 33 |
| 6 | Dalian Young Boy | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 40 | 33 |
| 7 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| 8 | Shanghai Port | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 32 | 26 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 42 | 26 |
| 10 | Shanghai Shenhua | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 38 | 25 |
| 11 | Zhejiang | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 39 | 24 |
| 12 | Liaoning Ironman | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 35 | 24 |
| 13 | Henan | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 29 | 23 |
| 14 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 17 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 38 | 15 |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shanghai Port | Qingdao Hainiu |
|---|---|---|
| Shandong Taishan | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Yunnan Yukun | 2-2 D | 4-2 W |
| Qingdao West Coast | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Henan | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Shanghai Port (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shanghai Port
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/08 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China FA Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 17/07 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Henan China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Shanghai Segenda China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
Qingdao Hainiu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/07 | Shanghai Shenhua China FA Cup |
1-4 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Henan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Zhejiang China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 26/06 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
4-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuxi Wugo China FA Cup |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shanghai Port vs Qingdao Hainiu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanghai Port win (72%). Probabilities: Shanghai Port 72%, draw 17%, Qingdao Hainiu 12%.
How many goals are expected in Shanghai Port vs Qingdao Hainiu?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Shanghai Port 2.75 · Qingdao Hainiu 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Port vs Qingdao Hainiu?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.