Prediction: Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights
Expected goals: 4.74 (Adelaide City 3.37 · Para Hills Knights 1.37). The model gives 85% home, 8% draw, 6% away. Under 5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 3-1.
On recent form, Adelaide City is 5-3-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Para Hills Knights 0-1-9 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Adelaide City won 6 and Para Hills Knights 0.
| Adelaide City | Draw | Para Hills Knights | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 94% | 4% | 2% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide City (rating 1572 vs 1341).
- H2H favours Adelaide City: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Adelaide City | Para Hills Knights | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 4.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.1 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 0/10/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.2 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide City 6–0–0 Para Hills Knights
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | Para Hills Knights | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Adelaide City |
| 26/07/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide City | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Para Hills Knights |
| 03/05/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Para Hills Knights | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Adelaide City |
| 01/06/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Para Hills Knights |
| 01/03/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Para Hills Knights | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Adelaide City |
| 22/08/20 Australia South Australia Premier League | Para Hills Knights | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Adelaide City |
Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Torrens Birkalla | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Metrostars | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | Adelaide City | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 31 | 14 | 32 |
| 4 | White City FK Beograd | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Playford | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 25 | 26 |
| 6 | Croydon FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 24 |
| 7 | Adelaide United NPL | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 21 |
| 8 | West Adelaide | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 18 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 16 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 30 | 18 |
| 10 | Campbelltown City | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 18 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 13 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 16 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Adelaide City | Para Hills Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Comets | 1-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Metrostars | 3-0 W | 0-9 L |
| Adelaide United NPL | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Sturt Lions | 4-1 W | 0-6 L |
| West Adelaide | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| White City FK Beograd | 2-2 D | 1-5 L |
| Playford | 0-0 D | 1-8 L |
| Campbelltown City | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Adelaide City (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adelaide City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 05/06 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Cumberland United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 01/05 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Para Hills Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-4 | 0-9 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-4 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 12/05 | Adelaide Cobras Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-8 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide City win (85%). Probabilities: Adelaide City 85%, draw 8%, Para Hills Knights 6%.
How many goals are expected in Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights?
The model expects 4.74 goals (Adelaide City 3.37 · Para Hills Knights 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.