Football · Norway Division 3 Group 3 · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: Vard Haugesund vs Førde

Team pages: Vard Haugesund · Førde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Vard Haugesund2.34

Førde1.35

1X2

59% 20% 21%

Vard Haugesund Draw Førde

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Vard Haugesund 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLLLLD

Førde 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWWDL

Head-to-head

Vard Haugesund 3–1–1 Førde (5 last)

Førde0-1Vard Haugesund
Vard Haugesund4-0Førde
Førde1-0Vard Haugesund
Førde2-2Vard Haugesund
Vard Haugesund3-0Førde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vard Haugesund 1455 · Førde 1533

	Vard Haugesund	Draw	Førde
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	60%	19%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Førde (rating 1455 vs 1533).
H2H favours Vard Haugesund: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vard Haugesund	Førde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.53 ★
X	4.33 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	3.60 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +10’	1.61	4.33	3.60
01:25 +2’	1.50▼	4.75▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +15’	1.47	4.40	4.52
01:30 +276’	1.53▲	4.24▼	4.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vard Haugesund 3–1–1 Førde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Førde	0-1 HT 0-0	Vard Haugesund
01/10/16 Norway Division 2 Group 3	Vard Haugesund	4-0 HT 3-0	Førde
11/06/16 Norway Division 2 Group 3	Førde	1-0 HT 1-0	Vard Haugesund
18/10/14 Norway Division 2 Group 3	Førde	2-2 HT 1-0	Vard Haugesund
05/07/14 Norway Division 2 Group 3	Vard Haugesund	3-0 HT 1-0	Førde

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Os	18	15	0	3	67	30	45
2	Askøy	18	11	5	2	32	18	38
3	Djerv 1919	18	10	5	3	42	24	35
4	Fana	18	9	2	7	48	38	29
5	Sogndal 2	18	8	3	7	51	35	27
6	Brann 2	18	7	6	5	40	38	27
7	Førde	18	8	3	7	33	32	27
8	Austevoll	18	7	6	5	35	39	27
9	Vard Haugesund	18	7	5	6	39	36	26
10	Asane Fotball 2	18	4	6	8	31	40	18
11	Stord	18	3	8	7	32	48	17
12	Gneist	18	4	2	12	32	53	14
13	Varegg	18	3	4	11	25	38	13
14	Fyllingsdalen	18	1	3	14	15	53	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vard Haugesund	Førde
Brann 2	4-4 D	7-0 W
Os	1-2 L	0-2 L
Austevoll	1-2 L	1-1 D
Gneist	1-2 L	2-1 W
Sogndal 2	4-4 D	3-3 D
Asane Fotball 2	3-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Førde (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vard Haugesund

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-3	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	Os Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
15/08	Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/07	Sogndal 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	4-4	10	2	D
28/06	Varegg Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	1-1	10	1	D
20/06	Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
13/06	Førde Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/06	Asane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-0	3-1	7	0	W

Førde

WLWLDDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Os Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/08	Stord Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/08	Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	3-0	7-0	–	–	W
03/08	Sogndal 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	2-0	3-3	–	–	D
25/07	Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
27/06	Askøy Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
22/06	Asane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	2-0	4-0	6	1	W
13/06	Vard Haugesund Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/05	Fana Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	2-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vard Haugesund vs Førde?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vard Haugesund win (59%). Probabilities: Vard Haugesund 59%, draw 20%, Førde 21%.

How many goals are expected in Vard Haugesund vs Førde?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Vard Haugesund 2.34 · Førde 1.35), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vard Haugesund vs Førde?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.