Football · Norway Division 3 Group 3 · 31/10, 14:00
Prediction: Stord vs Sogndal 2
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.45Total
Stord2.67
Sogndal 21.78
1X2
Stord
Draw
Sogndal 2
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Stord
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sogndal 2
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stord
4–1–1
Sogndal 2
(6 last)
- Sogndal 20-2Stord
- Stord4-1Sogndal 2
- Sogndal 22-2Stord
- Stord1-0Sogndal 2
- Stord2-1Sogndal 2
- Sogndal 22-1Stord
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stord 1530 · Sogndal 2 1435
| Stord | Draw | Sogndal 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 19% | 25% |
| Market | 58% | 16% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.45 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stord (rating 1530 vs 1435).
- H2H favours Stord: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stord | Sogndal 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.5 | 2.6 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5 | 2 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stord 4–1–1 Sogndal 2
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Sogndal 2 | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Stord |
| 04/09/21 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Stord | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Sogndal 2 |
| 07/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Sogndal 2 | 2-2 | Stord |
| 22/04/19 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Stord | 1-0 | Sogndal 2 |
| 24/09/18 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Stord | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sogndal 2 |
| 02/06/18 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Sogndal 2 | 2-1 | Stord |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Os | 25 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 42 | 58 |
| 2 | Djerv 1919 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 67 | 31 | 56 |
| 3 | Vard Haugesund | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 45 | 47 |
| 4 | Fana | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 44 |
| 5 | Askøy | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 43 |
| 6 | Brann 2 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 58 | 46 | 40 |
| 7 | Austevoll | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 | 56 | 37 |
| 8 | Førde | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 58 | 31 |
| 9 | Sogndal 2 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 64 | 57 | 30 |
| 10 | Stord | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 53 | 65 | 30 |
| 11 | Varegg | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 42 | 52 | 26 |
| 12 | Åsane Fotball 2 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 60 | 25 |
| 13 | Gneist | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 43 | 76 | 18 |
| 14 | Fyllingsdalen | 25 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 80 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stord | Sogndal 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Austevoll | 4-3 W | 2-3 L |
| Gneist | 5-2 W | 5-3 W |
| Varegg | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Vard Haugesund | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Fyllingsdalen | 2-1 W | 7-0 W |
| Djerv 1919 | 3-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Åsane Fotball 2 | 2-2 D | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Stord (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stord
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
3-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 17/10 | Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-0 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/10 | Varegg Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | Vard Haugesund Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/09 | Fyllingsdalen Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/09 | Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
3-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Askøy Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 05/09 | Fana Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
3-4 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 30/08 | Førde Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/08 | Åsane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Sogndal 2
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 19/10 | Os Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 10/10 | Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 03/10 | Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-3 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/09 | Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 19/09 | Vard Haugesund Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Varegg Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Fyllingsdalen Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
3-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Åsane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 18/08 | Varegg Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stord vs Sogndal 2?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stord win (57%). Probabilities: Stord 57%, draw 18%, Sogndal 2 25%.
How many goals are expected in Stord vs Sogndal 2?
The model expects 4.45 goals (Stord 2.67 · Sogndal 2 1.78), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stord vs Sogndal 2?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.