Football · Norway Division 3 Group 3 · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Varegg vs Stord

Team pages: Varegg · Stord

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Varegg2.47

Stord1.73

1X2

54% 20% 26%

Varegg Draw Stord

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Varegg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDWDWW

Stord 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLDLWL

Head-to-head

Varegg 0–1–4 Stord (5 last)

Stord1-1Varegg
Stord5-2Varegg
Varegg1-2Stord
Stord3-1Varegg
Varegg1-2Stord

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varegg 1530 · Stord 1445

	Varegg	Draw	Stord
Our model	54%	20%	26%
Market	54%	20%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varegg (rating 1530 vs 1445).
H2H favours Stord: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varegg	Stord
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	1.8 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.3 / 2	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 4.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:22 +13’	1.67	4.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +47’	1.55	4.24	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varegg 0–1–4 Stord

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Stord	1-1 HT 0-0	Varegg
08/09/18 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Stord	5-2	Varegg
16/05/18 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Varegg	1-2 HT 0-1	Stord
30/09/17 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Stord	3-1	Varegg
16/06/17 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Varegg	1-2 HT 1-0	Stord

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Os	22	16	1	5	74	39	49
2	Djerv 1919	22	14	5	3	58	30	47
3	Askøy	22	12	7	3	39	26	43
4	Fana	22	12	2	8	61	45	38
5	Vard Haugesund	22	11	5	6	57	41	38
6	Brann 2	22	10	6	6	54	42	36
7	Austevoll	22	9	6	7	42	49	33
8	Førde	22	9	4	9	41	48	31
9	Sogndal 2	22	8	3	11	56	46	27
10	Varegg	22	6	5	11	35	43	23
11	Stord	22	4	9	9	41	58	21
12	Åsane Fotball 2	22	4	7	11	38	52	19
13	Gneist	22	5	3	14	36	62	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	22	1	3	18	19	70	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varegg	Stord
Brann 2	2-1 W	1-1 D
Os	4-2 W	2-8 L
Djerv 1919	1-2 L	3-4 L
Askøy	1-3 L	3-3 D
Fyllingsdalen	4-0 W	2-1 W
Fana	4-2 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Varegg (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varegg

WWLLLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Os Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	4-2	2	2	W
19/09	Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Sogndal 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
05/09	Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	Sogndal 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Askøy Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-0	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	Fyllingsdalen Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
02/08	Fana Norway Division 3 Group 3	2-1	4-2	–	–	W

Stord

LDLDDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Vard Haugesund Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Fyllingsdalen Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
17/09	Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3	3-1	3-4	–	–	L
12/09	Askøy Norway Division 3 Group 3	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
05/09	Fana Norway Division 3 Group 3	3-4	3-5	–	–	L
30/08	Førde Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/08	Åsane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Os Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-3	2-8	–	–	L
03/08	Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
25/07	Askøy Norway Division 3 Group 3	0-2	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varegg vs Stord?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varegg win (54%). Probabilities: Varegg 54%, draw 20%, Stord 26%.

How many goals are expected in Varegg vs Stord?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Varegg 2.47 · Stord 1.73), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Varegg vs Stord?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.