Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 25/07, 15:00
Prediction: Arendal vs Vidar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Arendal2.25
Vidar1.06
1X2
Arendal
Draw
Vidar
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Arendal
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Vidar
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arendal
3–2–1
Vidar
(6 last)
- Arendal1-0Vidar
- Vidar0-1Arendal
- Arendal3-0Vidar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arendal 1499 · Vidar 1394
| Arendal | Draw | Vidar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arendal (rating 1499 vs 1394).
- H2H favours Arendal: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arendal | Vidar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 5.6 | 1.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arendal 3–2–1 Vidar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/19 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Arendal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vidar |
| 16/05/19 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Vidar | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Arendal |
| 15/09/18 Norway Division 2 Group 2 | Arendal | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Vidar |
| 26/05/18 Norway Division 2 Group 2 | Vidar | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Arendal |
| 17/10/15 Norway Division 2 Group 3 | Vidar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arendal |
| 18/07/15 Norway Division 2 Group 3 | Arendal | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Vidar |
Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerv | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Kvik Halden FK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | Bjarg | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| 6 | Sotra | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | Notodden | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 18 |
| 8 | Træff | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Pors Grenland | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | Arendal | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 11 |
| 11 | Lysekloster | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 11 |
| 12 | Sandviken | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
| 13 | Eik Tønsberg | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 26 | 4 |
| 14 | Vidar | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arendal | Vidar |
|---|---|---|
| Pors Grenland | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Træff | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Eik Tønsberg | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Sotra | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Brattvåg | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Sandviken | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Kvik Halden FK | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Notodden | 2-2 D | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Arendal (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arendal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Vidar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-4 | 0-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arendal vs Vidar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arendal win (64%). Probabilities: Arendal 64%, draw 20%, Vidar 16%.
How many goals are expected in Arendal vs Vidar?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Arendal 2.25 · Vidar 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Arendal vs Vidar?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.