Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 25/07, 15:30
Prediction: Notodden vs Sotra
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Notodden1.31
Sotra1.37
1X2
Notodden
Draw
Sotra
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Notodden
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sotra
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Notodden
1–4–1
Sotra
(6 last)
- Notodden1-1Sotra
- Sotra1-3Notodden
- Notodden0-0Sotra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Notodden 1531 · Sotra 1498
| Notodden | Draw | Sotra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Notodden | Sotra | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 1.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 2.6 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Notodden 1–4–1 Sotra
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Notodden | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sotra |
| 27/04/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Sotra | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Notodden |
| 21/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Notodden | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sotra |
| 06/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Sotra | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Notodden |
| 08/10/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Sotra | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Notodden |
| 09/04/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Notodden | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Sotra |
Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerv | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Kvik Halden FK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | Bjarg | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| 6 | Sotra | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | Notodden | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 18 |
| 8 | Træff | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Pors Grenland | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | Arendal | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 11 |
| 11 | Lysekloster | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 11 |
| 12 | Sandviken | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
| 13 | Eik Tønsberg | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 26 | 4 |
| 14 | Vidar | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Notodden | Sotra |
|---|---|---|
| Mjondalen | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Jerv | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Brattvåg | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Pors Grenland | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Kvik Halden FK | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Vidar | 5-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Bjarg | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Arendal | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Notodden (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Notodden
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
4-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Sotra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
6-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Notodden vs Sotra?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sotra win (38%). Probabilities: Notodden 35%, draw 27%, Sotra 38%.
How many goals are expected in Notodden vs Sotra?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Notodden 1.31 · Sotra 1.37), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Notodden vs Sotra?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.