Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Nardo vs Kvik Trondheim

Team pages: Nardo · Kvik Trondheim

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Nardo2.17

Kvik Trondheim1.95

1X2

44% 21% 35%

Nardo Draw Kvik Trondheim

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nardo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Kvik Trondheim 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nardo 0–2–1 Kvik Trondheim (3 last)

Kvik Trondheim2-1Nardo
Kvik Trondheim2-2Nardo
Nardo1-1Kvik Trondheim

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nardo 1538 · Kvik Trondheim 1472

	Nardo	Draw	Kvik Trondheim
Our model	43%	22%	35%
Market	44%	21%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nardo (rating 1538 vs 1472).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nardo	Kvik Trondheim
Goals for / against (FT)	3.8 / 1.8	0.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.16 ★
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	3.30 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 14.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:36 +2’	1.70	4.50	3.30
02:03 +2’	2.05▲	4.20▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +36’	2.01	3.75	2.62
01:29 +36’	2.10▲	3.69▼	2.51▼
02:58 +5’	2.16▲	3.62▼	2.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nardo 0–2–1 Kvik Trondheim

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Kvik Trondheim	2-1 HT 2-1	Nardo
26/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Kvik Trondheim	2-2 HT 1-2	Nardo
01/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Nardo	1-1 HT 1-1	Kvik Trondheim

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Strindheim	25	17	4	4	74	31	55
2	Volda	25	17	4	4	67	26	55
3	Byåsen	25	13	4	8	61	48	43
4	Melhus	25	12	6	7	56	30	42
5	Molde 2	25	10	5	10	66	80	35
6	Rosenborg 2	25	10	4	11	55	47	34
7	Nardo	25	10	3	12	66	53	33
8	Herd	25	9	5	11	49	60	32
9	Spjelkavik	25	8	5	12	45	56	29
10	Ranheim 2	25	8	5	12	62	77	29
11	Kvik Trondheim	25	8	5	12	37	57	29
12	NTNUI	25	7	7	11	36	55	28
13	Aalesunds FK 2	25	7	4	14	45	70	25
14	Orkla	25	6	5	14	43	72	23

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nardo	Kvik Trondheim
Orkla	2-3 L	1-0 W
Aalesunds FK 2	3-3 D	3-2 W
Herd	11-0 W	0-0 D
Byåsen	3-1 W	1-2 L
Strindheim	0-1 L	0-1 L
NTNUI	5-2 W	0-2 L
Ranheim 2	4-1 W	0-7 L
Rosenborg 2	5-2 W	2-1 W
Spjelkavik	4-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nardo (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nardo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-3	2	7	L
21/10	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	3-3	1	4	D
17/10	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	8-0	11-0	4	1	W
10/10	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
03/10	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
26/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/09	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	4-1	6	3	W
13/09	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	4	1	W
05/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	4-2	5	2	W
15/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-3	3	5	L

Kvik Trondheim

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
17/10	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/10	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
26/09	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	11	6	L
12/09	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
07/09	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-3	0-7	3	2	L
30/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-3	0-6	–	–	L
17/08	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	3-2	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nardo vs Kvik Trondheim?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nardo win (44%). Probabilities: Nardo 44%, draw 21%, Kvik Trondheim 35%.

How many goals are expected in Nardo vs Kvik Trondheim?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Nardo 2.17 · Kvik Trondheim 1.95), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nardo vs Kvik Trondheim?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.