Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: Gjøvik-Lyn vs Lillehammer

Team pages: Gjøvik-Lyn · Lillehammer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Gjøvik-Lyn1.44

Lillehammer1.71

1X2

32% 25% 44%

Gjøvik-Lyn Draw Lillehammer

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gjøvik-Lyn 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDWWLW

Lillehammer 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Gjøvik-Lyn 2–3–1 Lillehammer (6 last)

Lillehammer3-1Gjøvik-Lyn
Gjøvik-Lyn1-1Lillehammer
Lillehammer1-1Gjøvik-Lyn
Lillehammer0-2Gjøvik-Lyn
Gjøvik-Lyn3-2Lillehammer
Gjøvik-Lyn3-3Lillehammer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gjøvik-Lyn 1525 · Lillehammer 1608

	Gjøvik-Lyn	Draw	Lillehammer
Our model	31%	26%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillehammer (rating 1525 vs 1608).
H2H favours Gjøvik-Lyn: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gjøvik-Lyn	Lillehammer
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	3.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.44 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:18 +3’	2.90	3.75	2.00
23:25 +3’	2.80▼	3.75	2.05▲
08:07 +3’	2.45▼	3.60▼	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:14	2.46	3.29	2.41
05:28 +2’	2.50▲	3.18▼	2.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gjøvik-Lyn 2–3–1 Lillehammer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Lillehammer	3-1 HT 2-0	Gjøvik-Lyn
06/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Gjøvik-Lyn	1-1 HT 0-1	Lillehammer
10/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Lillehammer	1-1 HT 1-0	Gjøvik-Lyn
14/10/17 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Lillehammer	0-2	Gjøvik-Lyn
01/07/17 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Gjøvik-Lyn	3-2 HT 1-1	Lillehammer
28/02/17 Europe Friendlies	Gjøvik-Lyn	3-3 HT 3-3	Lillehammer

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	14	11	2	1	54	20	35
2	Gjøvik-Lyn	14	9	2	3	20	9	29
3	Rade IL	14	9	1	4	56	26	28
4	Elverum	14	9	1	4	37	23	28
5	Lyn 1896 II	14	7	2	5	35	28	23
6	Ørn Horten	14	6	4	4	26	23	22
7	Oppsal	14	6	3	5	25	20	21
8	Rælingen	14	6	2	6	29	37	20
9	Drøbak/Frogn	14	5	4	5	25	18	19
10	Sandefjord 2	14	6	1	7	37	33	19
11	Fram	14	3	3	8	18	30	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	14	3	3	8	23	36	12
13	Brumunddal	14	2	2	10	16	57	8
14	Bjørkelangen	14	1	0	13	10	51	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gjøvik-Lyn	Lillehammer
Rade IL	0-3 L	8-1 W
Brumunddal	3-0 W	8-0 W
Drøbak/Frogn	0-0 D	2-1 W
Lyn 1896 II	0-0 D	5-3 W
Elverum	1-0 W	2-2 D
Rælingen	1-2 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lillehammer (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gjøvik-Lyn

LWLWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-1	3	1	W
25/07	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
25/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
20/06	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	4	4	W
13/06	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
01/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
25/05	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
14/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
10/05	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
02/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-2	6	5	L

Lillehammer

WDWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
25/07	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	4-2	7	3	W
27/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
20/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-0	5-3	9	3	W
13/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	7-0	8-1	–	–	W
25/05	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-0	8-0	–	–	W
14/05	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
09/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	2-2	4	2	D
02/05	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gjøvik-Lyn vs Lillehammer?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lillehammer win (44%). Probabilities: Gjøvik-Lyn 32%, draw 25%, Lillehammer 44%.

How many goals are expected in Gjøvik-Lyn vs Lillehammer?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Gjøvik-Lyn 1.44 · Lillehammer 1.71), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gjøvik-Lyn vs Lillehammer?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.