Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 15/08, 14:00

Prediction: Ørn Horten vs Gjøvik-Lyn

Team pages: Ørn Horten · Gjøvik-Lyn

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Ørn Horten1.27

Gjøvik-Lyn1.43

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Ørn Horten Draw Gjøvik-Lyn

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ørn Horten 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWWLL

Gjøvik-Lyn 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWWLWL

Head-to-head

Ørn Horten 2–1 Gjøvik-Lyn (3 last)

Gjøvik-Lyn3-0Ørn Horten
Gjøvik-Lyn1-2Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten3-0Gjøvik-Lyn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ørn Horten 1493 · Gjøvik-Lyn 1518

	Ørn Horten	Draw	Gjøvik-Lyn
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	35%	22%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ørn Horten: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ørn Horten	Gjøvik-Lyn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 7	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X4.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.24 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +3’	2.55	4.00	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:36 +1’	2.51	3.57	2.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ørn Horten 2–0–1 Gjøvik-Lyn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Gjøvik-Lyn	3-0 HT 0-0	Ørn Horten
02/08/15 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Gjøvik-Lyn	1-2 HT 1-0	Ørn Horten
18/04/15 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Ørn Horten	3-0 HT 1-0	Gjøvik-Lyn

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	15	12	2	1	56	20	38
2	Elverum	15	10	1	4	38	23	31
3	Rade IL	15	9	2	4	57	27	29
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	15	9	2	4	20	11	29
5	Lyn 1896 II	15	8	2	5	39	31	26
6	Oppsal	15	7	3	5	26	20	24
7	Drøbak/Frogn	15	6	4	5	26	18	22
8	Ørn Horten	15	6	4	5	26	24	22
9	Rælingen	15	6	3	6	30	38	21
10	Sandefjord 2	15	6	1	8	37	34	19
11	Sarpsborg 2	15	4	3	8	34	36	15
12	Fram	15	3	3	9	21	34	12
13	Brumunddal	15	2	2	11	16	68	8
14	Bjørkelangen	15	1	0	14	10	52	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ørn Horten	Gjøvik-Lyn
Elverum	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sarpsborg 2	3-2 W	1-0 W
Sandefjord 2	4-3 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gjøvik-Lyn (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ørn Horten

DWWDLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
27/07	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-2	7	0	W
27/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
20/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
13/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
16/05	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
10/05	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	10	7	D

Gjøvik-Lyn

WLWDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-1	3	1	W
25/07	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
25/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
20/06	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	4	4	W
13/06	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
01/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
25/05	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
14/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
10/05	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ørn Horten vs Gjøvik-Lyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gjøvik-Lyn win (41%). Probabilities: Ørn Horten 34%, draw 25%, Gjøvik-Lyn 41%.

How many goals are expected in Ørn Horten vs Gjøvik-Lyn?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Ørn Horten 1.27 · Gjøvik-Lyn 1.43), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ørn Horten vs Gjøvik-Lyn?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.