Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 31/08, 19:00

Prediction: Sarpsborg 2 vs Rade IL

Team pages: Sarpsborg 2 · Rade IL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Sarpsborg 21.68

Rade IL2.8

1X2

21% 18% 61%

Sarpsborg 2 Draw Rade IL

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 2 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLDWL

Rade IL 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 2 0–1 Rade IL (1 last)

Rade IL5-1Sarpsborg 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 2 1468 · Rade IL 1542

	Sarpsborg 2	Draw	Rade IL
Our model	21%	18%	60%
Market	21%	18%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rade IL (rating 1468 vs 1542).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg 2	Rade IL
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.4	3.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X5.00

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 5.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:21 +3’	4.20	5.00	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 2 0–0–1 Rade IL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Rade IL	5-1 HT 2-1	Sarpsborg 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	16	13	2	1	60	21	41
2	Elverum	16	11	1	4	42	23	34
3	Rade IL	16	10	2	4	60	29	32
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	16	9	2	5	20	12	29
5	Lyn 1896 II	16	8	2	6	40	35	26
6	Ørn Horten	16	7	4	5	27	24	25
7	Oppsal	16	7	3	6	26	24	24
8	Rælingen	16	7	3	6	34	40	24
9	Drøbak/Frogn	16	6	4	6	28	21	22
10	Sandefjord 2	16	7	1	8	41	35	22
11	Sarpsborg 2	16	4	3	9	34	39	15
12	Fram	16	4	3	9	24	34	15
13	Brumunddal	16	2	2	12	18	72	8
14	Bjørkelangen	16	1	0	15	11	56	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg 2	Rade IL
Oppsal	2-2 D	0-1 L
Bjørkelangen	0-2 L	8-1 W
Lyn 1896 II	6-3 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sarpsborg 2 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg 2

WLLDWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
09/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-0	11-0	7	1	W
03/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
27/07	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	2-3	4	0	L
25/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
20/06	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
30/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-5	0	2	L
19/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	6-3	9	3	W

Rade IL

LWLWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	5-1	8-1	2	1	W
25/07	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-5	6	4	L
20/06	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/06	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	5-1	7-2	5	1	W
30/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-7	1-8	–	–	L
26/05	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	5-1	4	2	W
14/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg 2 vs Rade IL?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rade IL win (61%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 2 21%, draw 18%, Rade IL 61%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg 2 vs Rade IL?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Sarpsborg 2 1.68 · Rade IL 2.8), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 2 vs Rade IL?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.