Football · Finland Ykkosliiga · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: SJK II vs KTP

Team pages: SJK II · KTP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

SJK II0.89

KTP2.2

1X2

14% 19% 67%

SJK II Draw KTP

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SJK II 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLD

KTP 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

SJK II 0–1–5 KTP (6 last)

KTP2-1SJK II
KTP1-0SJK II
SJK II1-2KTP
KTP3-3SJK II
SJK II0-3KTP
KTP5-1SJK II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK II 1402 · KTP 1622

	SJK II	Draw	KTP
Our model	13%	21%	66%
Market	14%	18%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTP (rating 1402 vs 1622).
H2H favours KTP: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK II	KTP
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.93

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.25▼	Pinn 7.21 ★
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.56
2	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.35

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:23 +4’	6.50	5.00	1.33
08:05 +3’	6.25▼	5.00	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +36’	7.15	5.50	1.30
02:57 +34’	7.31▲	5.56▲	1.32▲
04:33 +22’	7.26▼	5.49▼	1.32▲
01:42 +143’	7.28▲	5.51▲	1.32▼
15:13 +192’	7.34▲	5.61▲	1.31▼
20:05 +189’	7.39▲	5.66▲	1.31▼
12:56 +51’	7.23▼	5.54▼	1.32▲
15:06 +76’	7.41▲	5.64▲	1.33▲
03:03 +63’	7.51▲	5.70▲	1.33▲
12:04 +19’	7.49▼	5.69▼	1.34▲
14:08 +14’	7.21▼	5.56▼	1.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK II 0–1–5 KTP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Finland Ykkosliiga	KTP	2-1 HT 1-1	SJK II
29/05/26 Finland Ykkosliiga	KTP	1-0 HT 1-0	SJK II
07/03/26 Finland Ykkoscup	SJK II	1-2 HT 0-1	KTP
19/08/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	KTP	3-3 HT 1-1	SJK II
20/06/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	SJK II	0-3 HT 0-2	KTP
24/04/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	KTP	5-1 HT 3-1	SJK II

Standings · Finland Ykkosliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KTP	26	18	4	4	48	26	58
2	PK-35	26	14	7	5	41	21	49
3	FC Haka	26	14	5	7	50	29	47
4	Jippo	26	12	8	6	36	21	44
5	JaPS	26	11	2	13	23	40	35
6	MP	26	8	6	12	28	36	30
7	Ekenäs IF	26	8	5	13	29	44	29
8	Klubi-04	26	6	8	12	37	37	26
9	KaPa	26	6	7	13	31	46	25
10	SJK II	26	3	8	15	21	44	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK II	KTP
Ekenäs IF	1-1 D	1-0 W
KaPa	2-3 L	2-1 W
MP	1-1 D	1-1 D
JaPS	2-3 L	3-0 W
Klubi-04	2-6 L	1-0 W
FC Haka	0-2 L	2-1 W
Jippo	1-0 W	2-0 W
PK-35	0-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: KTP (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SJK II

DLLWLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
19/09	KaPa Finland Ykkosliiga	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
12/09	MP Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
06/09	JaPS Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
30/08	Klubi-04 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-2	2-6	0	6	L
21/08	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
15/08	Jippo Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
08/08	PK-35 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
31/07	KTP Finland Ykkosliiga	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
25/07	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-0	8	1	D

KTP

DWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	MP Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	PK-35 Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
11/09	JaPS Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	3-0	0	3	W
04/09	Jippo Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
28/08	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
22/08	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/08	KaPa Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
09/08	Klubi-04 Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/07	SJK II Finland Ykkosliiga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
25/07	MP Finland Ykkosliiga	1-2	3-3	12	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SJK II vs KTP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTP win (67%). Probabilities: SJK II 14%, draw 19%, KTP 67%.

How many goals are expected in SJK II vs KTP?

The model expects 3.09 goals (SJK II 0.89 · KTP 2.2), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SJK II vs KTP?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.