Basketball · Mexico LNBP · 14/11, 05:00

Prediction: Soles Mexicali vs Astros de Jalisco

Team pages: Soles Mexicali · Astros de Jalisco

Prediction summary

Estimated points

163.8Total

Soles Mexicali84.2

Astros de Jalisco79.6

1X2

63% 37%

Soles Mexicali Astros de Jalisco

Recent form · 10 last

Soles Mexicali 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Astros de Jalisco 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Soles Mexicali 4–2 Astros de Jalisco (6 last)

Soles Mexicali85-66Astros de Jalisco
Astros de Jalisco81-74Soles Mexicali
Astros de Jalisco76-90Soles Mexicali
Soles Mexicali78-82Astros de Jalisco
Soles Mexicali81-78Astros de Jalisco
Soles Mexicali75-71Astros de Jalisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Soles Mexicali 1577 · Astros de Jalisco 1585

	Soles Mexicali	Astros de Jalisco
Our model	62%	38%
Market	63%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 163.8 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · +4.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points163.8Soles Mexicali 84.2 · Astros de Jalisco 79.6

Match keys

H2H favours Soles Mexicali: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Soles Mexicali	Astros de Jalisco
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.8 / 72.8	87.3 / 80.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.8 / 74.4	84.8 / 82
Est. result	84	80

Est. total163.8

Line O/U159.5

Diff.4.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.48

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.83

2 (+4.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 159.51.87

Under 159.51.80

Diff.: 5.6 · Est. total: 165.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	2
15:48	1.48	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
08:46 +1’	1.35	2.74
17:46 +5’	1.33▼	2.82▲
19:45 +9’	1.33▲	2.82
00:46	1.36▲	2.89▲
04:45 +1’	1.43▲	2.64▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Soles Mexicali 4–0–2 Astros de Jalisco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/11/26 Mexico LNBP	Soles Mexicali	85-66	Astros de Jalisco
13/09/26 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	81-74	Soles Mexicali
12/09/26 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	76-90	Soles Mexicali
06/09/26 Mexico LNBP Mid-Season Cup	Soles Mexicali	78-82	Astros de Jalisco
13/08/25 Mexico LNBP	Soles Mexicali	81-78	Astros de Jalisco
11/07/25 Mexico LNBP	Soles Mexicali	75-71	Astros de Jalisco

Standings · Mexico LNBP · LNBP 2026, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Soles Mexicali	28	21	7	2382	2090	49
2	Astros de Jalisco	28	20	8	2473	2246	48
3	Lobos Puebla	28	18	10	2366	2251	46
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	28	15	13	2411	2371	43
5	Diablos Rojos	28	11	17	2294	2370	39
6	Gambusinos de Fresnillo	28	11	17	2233	2327	39
7	El Calor de Cancun	28	9	19	2276	2384	37

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Soles Mexicali

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/11	Astros de Jalisco Mexico LNBP	85-66	W
06/11	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	110-79	W
04/11	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	87-75	W
03/11	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	84-87	L
31/10	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	83-65	W
30/10	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	80-76	W
23/10	Abejas Mexico LNBP	92-70	W
20/10	Abejas Mexico LNBP	100-60	W
19/10	Abejas Mexico LNBP	102-58	W
08/10	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	75-92	L

Astros de Jalisco

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/11	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	66-85	L
04/11	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	82-77	W
03/11	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	83-69	W
31/10	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	97-90	W
30/10	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	96-89	W
23/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	81-72	W
20/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	86-83	W
19/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	100-78	W
08/10	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	86-71	W
07/10	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	96-89	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Soles Mexicali vs Astros de Jalisco?

Our model gives 63% to Soles Mexicali.

How many points are expected in Soles Mexicali vs Astros de Jalisco?

The model estimates 163.8 total points (Soles Mexicali 84.2 · Astros de Jalisco 79.6).