Basketball · Lithuania NKL · 03/11, 18:00

Prediction: Stekas vs Neptunas 2

Team pages: Stekas · Neptunas 2

Prediction summary

Estimated points

163.7Total

Stekas80.1

Neptunas 283.6

1X2

40% 60%

Stekas Neptunas 2

Recent form · 10 last

Stekas 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Neptunas 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Stekas 3–3 Neptunas 2 (6 last)

Neptunas 277-70Stekas
Neptunas 292-93Stekas
Stekas70-91Neptunas 2
Stekas84-77Neptunas 2
Stekas91-74Neptunas 2
Neptunas 285-67Stekas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stekas 1459 · Neptunas 2 1535

	Stekas	Neptunas 2
Our model	52%	48%
Market	38%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 163.7 points · Bet365 line 159.5 · +4.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points163.7Stekas 80.1 · Neptunas 2 83.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neptunas 2 (rating 1459 vs 1535).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Stekas	Neptunas 2
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.9 / 93.8	76.1 / 74.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	79 / 94.6	74.6 / 71.6
Est. result	80	84

Est. total163.7

Line O/U159.5

Diff.4.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.50

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.83

2 (-4.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 159.51.83

Under 159.51.83

Diff.: 5.6 · Est. total: 165.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 9.6%

Time*	1	2
17:13 +35’	2.50	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
16:40 +7’	2.24	1.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stekas 3–0–3 Neptunas 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/02/26 Lithuania NKL	Neptunas 2	77-70	Stekas
13/12/25 Lithuania NKL	Neptunas 2	92-93	Stekas
11/10/25 Lithuania NKL	Stekas	70-91	Neptunas 2
20/02/25 Lithuania NKL	Stekas	84-77	Neptunas 2
11/01/25 Lithuania NKL	Stekas	91-74	Neptunas 2
12/10/24 Lithuania NKL	Neptunas 2	85-67	Stekas

Standings · Lithuania NKL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Telsiai	10	10	0	882	725
2	Jurbarkas-Karys	9	8	1	793	667
3	Palangos Olimpas	10	8	2	930	806
4	Suduva Mantinga	8	6	2	752	627
5	Silute Silute	8	6	2	667	619
6	Neptunas 2	9	6	3	693	668
7	Plunges Olimpas	10	6	4	814	781
8	Omega-Tauras	10	6	4	870	824
9	Vytis	7	4	3	658	648
10	Alytaus Patriotai	10	5	5	861	882
11	Vilkaviskio Perlas	9	4	5	733	762
12	Zalgiris 2	10	4	6	957	971
13	Kedainiu SC	10	4	6	768	838
14	Stekas	9	3	6	737	817
15	Kretinga	10	2	8	797	881
16	Mazeikiai	10	2	8	765	865
17	Rytas 2	10	0	10	751	873
18	Atletas	9	0	9	696	870

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stekas	Neptunas 2
Mazeikiai	74-70 W	90-77 W
Telsiai	70-104 L	72-85 L
Palangos Olimpas	76-107 L	78-77 W
Kretinga	99-95 W	91-76 W
Silute Silute	72-80 L	73-70 W
Vytis	89-90 L	84-88 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Neptunas 2 (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stekas

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/10	Kedainiu SC Lithuania NKL	76-97	L
24/10	Mazeikiai Lithuania NKL	74-70	W
22/10	Telsiai Lithuania NKL	70-104	L
17/10	Palangos Olimpas Lithuania NKL	76-107	L
10/10	Kretinga Lithuania NKL	99-95	W
08/10	Zalgiris 2 Lithuania NKL	108-87	W
03/10	Silute Silute Lithuania NKL	72-80	L
01/10	Vytis Lithuania NKL	89-90	L
14/03	Kretinga Lithuania NKL	103-107	L
12/03	Alytus Lithuania NKL	92-101	L

Neptunas 2

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/10	Plunges Olimpas Lithuania NKL	59-57	W
24/10	Rytas 2 Lithuania NKL	74-62	W
22/10	Palangos Olimpas Lithuania NKL	78-77	W
17/10	Mazeikiai Lithuania NKL	90-77	W
15/10	Telsiai Lithuania NKL	72-85	L
10/10	Silute Silute Lithuania NKL	73-70	W
06/10	Vytis Lithuania NKL	84-88	L
03/10	Omega-Tauras Lithuania NKL	72-76	L
01/10	Kretinga Lithuania NKL	91-76	W
09/05	Suduva Mantinga Lithuania NKL	68-76	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stekas vs Neptunas 2?

Our model gives 60% to Neptunas 2.

How many points are expected in Stekas vs Neptunas 2?

The model estimates 163.7 total points (Stekas 80.1 · Neptunas 2 83.6).