Basketball · Uruguay Liga · 17/11, 01:30
Prediction: Penarol Montevideo vs Nacional
Team pages: Penarol Montevideo · Nacional
Prediction summary
Estimated points
171.2Total
Penarol Montevideo92.5
Nacional78.6
1X2
Penarol Montevideo
Nacional
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol Montevideo
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Nacional
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol Montevideo
4–2
Nacional
(6 last)
- Nacional82-84Penarol Montevideo
- Penarol Montevideo71-78Nacional
- Penarol Montevideo82-69Nacional
- Nacional62-87Penarol Montevideo
- Nacional62-87Penarol Montevideo
- Nacional90-72Penarol Montevideo
Model analysis
Estimated points171.2Penarol Montevideo 92.5 · Nacional 78.6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol Montevideo (rating 1666 vs 1470).
- Penarol Montevideo is a clear favourite (84% market).
- H2H favours Penarol Montevideo: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Penarol Montevideo | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 88.4 / 77.5 | 87.8 / 90.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 89.2 / 72 | 88 / 92.2 |
| Est. result | 93 | 79 |
Est. total171.2
Line O/U169
Diff.2.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol Montevideo 4–0–2 Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 82-84 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 09/04/26 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 71-78 | Nacional |
| 09/12/25 Uruguay Liga | Penarol Montevideo | 82-69 | Nacional |
| 14/10/25 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 62-87 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 11/10/25 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 62-87 | Penarol Montevideo |
| 10/03/25 Uruguay Liga | Nacional | 90-72 | Penarol Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bigua | 7 | 6 | 1 | 651 | 593 | 13 |
| 2 | Goes | 6 | 5 | 1 | 561 | 502 | 11 |
| 3 | Penarol Montevideo | 5 | 5 | 0 | 446 | 360 | 10 |
| 4 | Urunday Universitario | 7 | 2 | 5 | 545 | 558 | 9 |
| 5 | Malvin | 6 | 3 | 3 | 459 | 478 | 9 |
| 6 | Hebraica Macabi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 423 | 407 | 8 |
| 7 | Nacional | 6 | 2 | 4 | 521 | 544 | 8 |
| 8 | Union Atletica | 7 | 1 | 6 | 548 | 601 | 8 |
| 9 | Defensor Sporting | 5 | 3 | 2 | 400 | 393 | 8 |
| 10 | Aguada | 6 | 3 | 3 | 458 | 461 | 7 |
| 11 | CA Atenas Montevideo | 6 | 1 | 5 | 426 | 532 | 7 |
| 12 | Larranaga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 508 | 517 | 5 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol Montevideo | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Aguada | 82-66 W | 81-83 L |
| Urunday Universitario | 91-79 W | 74-67 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol Montevideo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
82-66 | W |
| 06/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Liga |
84-65 | W |
| 03/11 | Union Atletica Uruguay Liga |
88-74 | W |
| 29/10 | Malvin Uruguay Liga |
101-76 | W |
| 22/10 | Urunday Universitario Uruguay Liga |
91-79 | W |
| 23/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
107-92 | W |
| 20/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
80-71 | W |
| 17/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
81-92 | L |
| 13/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
71-78 | L |
| 04/06 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
99-82 | W |
Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Urunday Universitario Uruguay Liga |
74-67 | W |
| 10/11 | Bigua Uruguay Liga |
88-110 | L |
| 07/11 | Hebraica Macabi Uruguay Liga |
78-83 | L |
| 27/10 | Goes Uruguay Liga |
110-124 | L |
| 23/10 | CA Atenas Montevideo Uruguay Liga |
90-77 | W |
| 21/10 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
81-83 | L |
| 29/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
91-92 | L |
| 26/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
74-87 | L |
| 22/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
109-89 | W |
| 19/05 | Aguada Uruguay Liga |
83-96 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol Montevideo vs Nacional?
Our model gives 84% to Penarol Montevideo.
How many points are expected in Penarol Montevideo vs Nacional?
The model estimates 171.2 total points (Penarol Montevideo 92.5 · Nacional 78.6).