Basketball · Colombia Liga · 09/10, 01:30
Prediction: Caimanes del Villavicencio vs Motilones Del Norte
Team pages: Caimanes del Villavicencio · Motilones Del Norte
Prediction summary
Estimated points
167.7Total
Caimanes del Villavicencio87.7
Motilones Del Norte80
1X2
Caimanes del Villavicencio
Motilones Del Norte
Markets
Over 161.5 points 65%
Recent form · 10 last
Caimanes del Villavicencio
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Motilones Del Norte
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caimanes del Villavicencio
4–2
Motilones Del Norte
(6 last)
- Motilones Del Norte103-100Caimanes del Villavicencio
- Motilones Del Norte86-89Caimanes del Villavicencio
- Caimanes del Villavicencio78-65Motilones Del Norte
- Caimanes del Villavicencio73-70Motilones Del Norte
- Motilones Del Norte74-77Caimanes del Villavicencio
- Motilones Del Norte98-89Caimanes del Villavicencio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caimanes del Villavicencio 1554 · Motilones Del Norte 1487
| Caimanes del Villavicencio | Motilones Del Norte | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
167.7 points · Bet365 line 161.5 · +6.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points167.7Caimanes del Villavicencio 87.7 · Motilones Del Norte 80
Over / Under 161.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~168.3 pts · strength 7
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caimanes del Villavicencio (rating 1554 vs 1487).
- Caimanes del Villavicencio is a clear favourite (71% market).
- H2H favours Caimanes del Villavicencio: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Caimanes del Villavicencio | Motilones Del Norte | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 86.6 / 79.8 | 84.3 / 86.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 82.4 / 81.2 | 90.4 / 86.8 |
| Est. result | 88 | 80 |
Est. total167.7
Line O/U161.5
Diff.6.2
Over / Under65% / 35%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caimanes del Villavicencio 4–0–2 Motilones Del Norte
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Colombia Liga | Motilones Del Norte | 103-100 | Caimanes del Villavicencio |
| 21/04/26 Colombia Liga | Motilones Del Norte | 86-89 | Caimanes del Villavicencio |
| 17/10/25 Colombia Liga | Caimanes del Villavicencio | 78-65 | Motilones Del Norte |
| 16/10/25 Colombia Liga | Caimanes del Villavicencio | 73-70 | Motilones Del Norte |
| 25/05/25 Colombia Liga | Motilones Del Norte | 74-77 | Caimanes del Villavicencio |
| 24/05/25 Colombia Liga | Motilones Del Norte | 98-89 | Caimanes del Villavicencio |
Standings · Colombia Liga · LBP 2026-II, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Motilones Del Norte | 5 | 3 | 2 | 442 | 416 | 8 |
| 2 | Caimanes del Villavicencio | 4 | 3 | 1 | 334 | 319 | 7 |
| 3 | Piratas de Bogota | 5 | 2 | 3 | 376 | 393 | 7 |
| 4 | Capitanes de Bogota | 2 | 0 | 2 | 130 | 154 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caimanes del Villavicencio | Motilones Del Norte |
|---|---|---|
| Piratas de Bogota | 67-63 W | 95-87 W |
| Paisas | 97-105 L | 78-81 L |
| Sabios de Manizales | 79-56 W | 107-99 W |
| Caribbean Storm Islands | 79-92 L | 103-96 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Motilones Del Norte (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caimanes del Villavicencio
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Piratas de Bogota Colombia Liga |
67-63 | W |
| 04/10 | Piratas de Bogota Colombia Liga |
92-70 | W |
| 26/05 | Paisas Colombia Liga |
97-105 | L |
| 23/05 | Paisas Colombia Liga |
81-88 | L |
| 22/05 | Paisas Colombia Liga |
75-80 | L |
| 18/05 | Sabios de Manizales Colombia Liga |
79-56 | W |
| 16/05 | Sabios de Manizales Colombia Liga |
99-91 | W |
| 15/05 | Sabios de Manizales Colombia Liga |
107-70 | W |
| 12/05 | Caribbean Storm Islands Colombia Liga |
79-92 | L |
| 11/05 | Caribbean Storm Islands Colombia Liga |
90-83 | W |
Motilones Del Norte
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Capitanes de Bogota Colombia Liga |
81-71 | W |
| 02/10 | Piratas de Bogota Colombia Liga |
95-87 | W |
| 01/10 | Piratas de Bogota Colombia Liga |
80-83 | L |
| 12/05 | Sabios de Manizales Colombia Liga |
107-99 | W |
| 10/05 | Sabios de Manizales Colombia Liga |
89-94 | L |
| 08/05 | Caribbean Storm Islands Colombia Liga |
103-96 | W |
| 07/05 | Caribbean Storm Islands Colombia Liga |
80-71 | W |
| 30/04 | Toros del Valle Colombia Liga |
56-86 | L |
| 29/04 | Toros del Valle Colombia Liga |
74-98 | L |
| 26/04 | Paisas Colombia Liga |
78-81 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caimanes del Villavicencio vs Motilones Del Norte?
Our model gives 71% to Caimanes del Villavicencio.
How many points are expected in Caimanes del Villavicencio vs Motilones Del Norte?
The model estimates 167.7 total points (Caimanes del Villavicencio 87.7 · Motilones Del Norte 80).
Over or under 161.5 points?
Recent history points to over 161.5 points (65%).