Basketball · Mexico Liga ABE · 03/10, 02:00
Prediction: UMAD vs Tec Mty Toluca
Team pages: Tec Mty Toluca
Prediction summary
Estimated points
149.4Total
UMAD76.1
Tec Mty Toluca73.3
1X2
UMAD
Tec Mty Toluca
Recent form · 10 last
UMAD
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Tec Mty Toluca
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UMAD
4–2
Tec Mty Toluca
(6 last)
- UMAD74-62Tec Mty Toluca
- Tec Mty Toluca83-75UMAD
- UMAD66-70Tec Mty Toluca
- Tec Mty Toluca52-64UMAD
- UMAD63-46Tec Mty Toluca
- UMAD72-55Tec Mty Toluca
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UMAD 1494 · Tec Mty Toluca 1561
| UMAD | Tec Mty Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
149.4 points · Bet365 line 144.5 · +4.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points149.4UMAD 76.1 · Tec Mty Toluca 73.3
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tec Mty Toluca (rating 1494 vs 1561).
- H2H favours UMAD: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| UMAD | Tec Mty Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 69 / 65.7 | 81.9 / 80.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 65.4 / 70.4 | 74.6 / 77.6 |
| Est. result | 76 | 73 |
Est. total149.4
Line O/U144.5
Diff.4.9
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · UMAD 4–0–2 Tec Mty Toluca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Mexico Liga ABE | UMAD | 74-62 | Tec Mty Toluca |
| 04/10/25 Mexico Liga ABE | Tec Mty Toluca | 83-75 | UMAD |
| 05/04/25 Mexico Liga ABE | UMAD | 66-70 | Tec Mty Toluca |
| 23/11/24 Mexico Liga ABE | Tec Mty Toluca | 52-64 | UMAD |
| 28/04/24 Mexico Liga ABE | UMAD | 63-46 | Tec Mty Toluca |
| 09/03/24 Mexico Liga ABE | UMAD | 72-55 | Tec Mty Toluca |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UMAD | Tec Mty Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| UANE | 74-78 L | 68-60 W |
| UPAEP | 52-58 L | 68-60 W |
| Tec Mty Monterrey | 61-57 W | 56-78 L |
| UANL | 74-68 W | 79-74 W |
| Universidad Interamericana | 78-68 W | 90-88 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: UMAD (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UMAD
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | UDLAP Mexico Liga ABE |
69-70 | L |
| 19/09 | UANE Mexico Liga ABE |
74-78 | L |
| 19/09 | CEU Mexico Liga ABE |
69-75 | L |
| 28/04 | UPAEP Mexico Liga ABE |
52-58 | L |
| 18/04 | Tec Mty Puebla Mexico Liga ABE |
63-71 | L |
| 02/04 | UDLAP Mexico Liga ABE |
60-45 | W |
| 28/03 | Tec Mty Monterrey Mexico Liga ABE |
61-57 | W |
| 21/03 | UANE Mexico Liga ABE |
90-67 | W |
| 21/03 | UANL Mexico Liga ABE |
74-68 | W |
| 14/03 | Universidad Interamericana Mexico Liga ABE |
78-68 | W |
Tec Mty Toluca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Universidad Montrer Mexico Liga ABE |
77-61 | W |
| 26/09 | Anahuac Queretaro Mexico Liga ABE |
93-115 | L |
| 20/09 | UANL Mexico Liga ABE |
79-74 | W |
| 19/09 | Tec Mty Monterrey Mexico Liga ABE |
56-78 | L |
| 03/05 | UPAEP Mexico Liga ABE |
68-60 | W |
| 30/04 | Tec Mty Santa Fe Mexico Liga ABE |
88-87 | W |
| 28/04 | Universidad Interamericana Mexico Liga ABE |
90-88 | W |
| 19/04 | Anahuac Queretaro Mexico Liga ABE |
93-89 | W |
| 18/04 | Tec Mty Hidalgo Mexico Liga ABE |
107-90 | W |
| 11/04 | UANE Mexico Liga ABE |
68-60 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UMAD vs Tec Mty Toluca?
Our model gives 58% to UMAD.
How many points are expected in UMAD vs Tec Mty Toluca?
The model estimates 149.4 total points (UMAD 76.1 · Tec Mty Toluca 73.3).