Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 24/09, 02:45

Prediction: Malvin (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)

Team pages: Malvin (W) · Defensor Sporting (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

144.1Total

Malvin (W)68

Defensor Sporting (W)76.1

1X2

28% 72%

Malvin (W) Defensor Sporting (W)

Markets

Over 123.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Malvin (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Defensor Sporting (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Malvin (W) 2–4 Defensor Sporting (W) (6 last)

Defensor Sporting (W)67-63Malvin (W)
Malvin (W)56-72Defensor Sporting (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)63-69Malvin (W)
Malvin (W)49-83Defensor Sporting (W)
Defensor Sporting (W)55-66Malvin (W)
Malvin (W)60-61Defensor Sporting (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malvin (W) 1504 · Defensor Sporting (W) 1630

	Malvin (W)	Defensor Sporting (W)
Our model	45%	55%
Market	24%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 144.1 points · Bet365 line 123.5 · +20.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points144.1Malvin (W) 68 · Defensor Sporting (W) 76.1

Over / Under 123.5Over · 75%recent trend · ~130.5 pts · strength 7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensor Sporting (W) (rating 1504 vs 1630).
Defensor Sporting (W) is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Defensor Sporting (W): 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Malvin (W)	Defensor Sporting (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	70.7 / 64.6	75 / 52.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	68.4 / 66.2	67.6 / 56.8
Est. result	68	76

Est. total144.1

Line O/U123.5

Diff.20.6

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.90

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+9.5)1.83

2 (-9.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 123.51.83

Under 123.51.83

Diff.: 8.05 · Est. total: 131.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 11.6%

Time*	1	2
21:40 +9’	3.90	1.22
06:39 +7’	6.75▲	1.09▼
08:44 +2’	4.40▼	1.18▲
09:30 +16’	3.90▼	1.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
02:47 +58’	1.93	1.74
04:17 +29’	2.71▲	1.36▼
04:59 +47’	3.00▲	1.29▼
06:32 +13’	3.04▲	1.28▼
08:18 +28’	5.03▲	1.08▼
09:46	4.67▼	1.10▲
10:08 +38’	3.41▼	1.22▲
12:16 +30’	3.66▲	1.18▼
22:27 +20’	3.35▼	1.23▲
23:49 +57’	3.26▼	1.24▲
01:32 +14’	4.02▲	1.15▼
02:45 +1’	5.10▲	1.08▼
03:38 +7’	5.71▲	1.06▼
05:43 +2’	5.24▼	1.07▲
07:25 +21’	4.87▼	1.09▲
08:22 +24’	3.49▼	1.20▲
11:43 +3’	3.49	1.21▲
12:11 +35’	3.48▼	1.21▲
13:03 +43’	3.47▼	1.21▲
15:18 +28’	3.48▲	1.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malvin (W) 2–0–4 Defensor Sporting (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	67-63	Malvin (W)
18/09/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	56-72	Defensor Sporting (W)
15/09/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	63-69	Malvin (W)
12/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	49-83	Defensor Sporting (W)
18/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Defensor Sporting (W)	55-66	Malvin (W)
11/05/26 Uruguay Liga Women	Malvin (W)	60-61	Defensor Sporting (W)

Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Defensor Sporting (W)	16	15	1	1248	877	31
2	Malvin (W)	16	14	2	1165	868	30
3	Aguada (W)	16	9	7	1138	1124	25
4	Club Yale Women	16	6	10	909	1125	22
5	Lagomar (W)	16	5	11	973	961	21

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malvin (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/09	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	63-67	L
18/09	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	56-72	L
15/09	Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women	69-63	W
11/09	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	72-53	W
07/09	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	82-76	W
04/09	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	74-85	L
31/08	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	65-80	L
27/08	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	80-58	W
20/08	Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women	61-48	W
16/08	Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women	85-44	W

Defensor Sporting (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/09	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	67-63	W
18/09	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	72-56	W
15/09	Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women	63-69	L
03/09	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	60-54	W
31/08	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	76-42	W
27/08	Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women	71-38	W
20/08	Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women	71-47	W
17/08	Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women	96-56	W
24/07	Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women	94-36	W
17/07	Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women	80-67	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malvin (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)?

Our model gives 72% to Defensor Sporting (W).

How many points are expected in Malvin (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)?

The model estimates 144.1 total points (Malvin (W) 68 · Defensor Sporting (W) 76.1).

Over or under 123.5 points?

Recent history points to over 123.5 points (75%).