Basketball · Uruguay Liga Women · 15/09, 02:45
Prediction: Defensor Sporting (W) vs Malvin (W)
Team pages: Defensor Sporting (W) · Malvin (W)
Prediction summary
Estimated points
144.2Total
Defensor Sporting (W)76.4
Malvin (W)67.8
1X2
Defensor Sporting (W)
Malvin (W)
Recent form · 10 last
Defensor Sporting (W)
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Malvin (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensor Sporting (W)
5–1
Malvin (W)
(6 last)
- Malvin (W)49-83Defensor Sporting (W)
- Defensor Sporting (W)55-66Malvin (W)
- Malvin (W)60-61Defensor Sporting (W)
- Malvin (W)73-83Defensor Sporting (W)
- Defensor Sporting (W)85-73Malvin (W)
- Malvin (W)62-79Defensor Sporting (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting (W) 1642 · Malvin (W) 1527
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Malvin (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 24% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
144.2 points · Bet365 line 129.5 · +14.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points144.2Defensor Sporting (W) 76.4 · Malvin (W) 67.8
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensor Sporting (W) (rating 1642 vs 1527).
- Defensor Sporting (W) is a clear favourite (73% market).
- H2H favours Defensor Sporting (W): 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Malvin (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 78.6 / 50.7 | 71.4 / 64.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 74.8 / 47.4 | 74.6 / 70.4 |
| Est. result | 76 | 68 |
Est. total144.2
Line O/U129.5
Diff.14.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting (W) 5–0–1 Malvin (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 49-83 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 18/06/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 55-66 | Malvin (W) |
| 11/05/26 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 60-61 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 14/10/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 73-83 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 13/10/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 85-73 | Malvin (W) |
| 09/10/25 Uruguay Liga Women | Malvin (W) | 62-79 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
Standings · Uruguay Liga Women · LFB, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1248 | 877 | 31 |
| 2 | Malvin (W) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1165 | 868 | 30 |
| 3 | Aguada (W) | 16 | 9 | 7 | 1138 | 1124 | 25 |
| 4 | Club Yale Women | 16 | 6 | 10 | 909 | 1125 | 22 |
| 5 | Lagomar (W) | 16 | 5 | 11 | 973 | 961 | 21 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting (W) | Malvin (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lagomar (W) | 60-54 W | 64-53 W |
| Aguada (W) | 80-67 W | 72-53 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Malvin (W) (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
60-54 | W |
| 31/08 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
76-42 | W |
| 27/08 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
71-38 | W |
| 20/08 | Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
71-47 | W |
| 17/08 | Cordon (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
96-56 | W |
| 24/07 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
94-36 | W |
| 17/07 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
80-67 | W |
| 12/07 | Malvin (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
83-49 | W |
| 05/07 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
84-62 | W |
| 28/06 | Club Yale Women Uruguay Liga Women |
71-56 | W |
Malvin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
72-53 | W |
| 07/09 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
82-76 | W |
| 04/09 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
74-85 | L |
| 31/08 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
65-80 | L |
| 27/08 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
80-58 | W |
| 20/08 | Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
61-48 | W |
| 16/08 | Tabare (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
85-44 | W |
| 24/07 | Aguada (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
82-67 | W |
| 12/07 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
49-83 | L |
| 09/07 | Lagomar (W) Uruguay Liga Women |
64-53 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Malvin (W)?
Our model gives 73% to Defensor Sporting (W).
How many points are expected in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Malvin (W)?
The model estimates 144.2 total points (Defensor Sporting (W) 76.4 · Malvin (W) 67.8).