Basketball · El Salvador Liga Mayor · 21/09, 02:00
Prediction: Santa Tecla vs Ahuachapan
Team pages: Santa Tecla · Ahuachapan
Prediction summary
Estimated points
162.4Total
Santa Tecla86.4
Ahuachapan76
1X2
Santa Tecla
Ahuachapan
Recent form · 10 last
Santa Tecla
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Ahuachapan
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santa Tecla
5–1
Ahuachapan
(6 last)
- Santa Tecla95-70Ahuachapan
- Ahuachapan61-80Santa Tecla
- Santa Tecla87-83Ahuachapan
- Ahuachapan62-100Santa Tecla
- Ahuachapan85-78Santa Tecla
- Santa Tecla88-83Ahuachapan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santa Tecla 1500 · Ahuachapan 1401
| Santa Tecla | Ahuachapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 25% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
162.4 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · -3.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points162.4Santa Tecla 86.4 · Ahuachapan 76
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Tecla (rating 1500 vs 1401).
- Santa Tecla is a clear favourite (77% market).
- H2H favours Santa Tecla: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Santa Tecla | Ahuachapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 74 / 81.7 | 73.6 / 92.9 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 74.6 / 87.6 | 66.6 / 103 |
| Est. result | 86 | 76 |
Est. total162.4
Line O/U165.5
Diff.3.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Tecla 5–0–1 Ahuachapan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Santa Tecla | 95-70 | Ahuachapan |
| 02/04/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Ahuachapan | 61-80 | Santa Tecla |
| 30/10/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Santa Tecla | 87-83 | Ahuachapan |
| 19/09/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Ahuachapan | 62-100 | Santa Tecla |
| 06/05/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Ahuachapan | 85-78 | Santa Tecla |
| 23/04/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Santa Tecla | 88-83 | Ahuachapan |
Standings · El Salvador Liga Mayor · LMB 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.Lobos BKB | 6 | 5 | 1 | 503 | 445 | 11 |
| 2 | CD Aguila | 6 | 4 | 2 | 501 | 453 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Ana BC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 513 | 483 | 10 |
| 4 | Cojutepeque | 5 | 4 | 1 | 474 | 358 | 9 |
| 5 | Isidro Metapan | 5 | 4 | 1 | 454 | 381 | 9 |
| 6 | Santiagueno | 5 | 2 | 3 | 391 | 469 | 7 |
| 7 | San Salvador | 5 | 2 | 3 | 433 | 427 | 7 |
| 8 | Brujos Izalco | 5 | 1 | 4 | 343 | 384 | 6 |
| 9 | Salvadorenos | 5 | 1 | 4 | 402 | 409 | 6 |
| 10 | Santa Tecla | 4 | 1 | 3 | 294 | 342 | 5 |
| 11 | Ahuachapan | 4 | 0 | 4 | 257 | 414 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Santa Tecla | Ahuachapan |
|---|---|---|
| Brujos Izalco | 94-76 W | 80-56 W |
| CD Aguila | 76-89 L | 56-95 L |
| A.Lobos BKB | 56-88 L | 90-81 W |
| Isidro Metapan | 79-96 L | 76-108 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santa Tecla
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor |
68-89 | L |
| 12/09 | Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor |
94-76 | W |
| 10/09 | CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-89 | L |
| 08/09 | A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor |
56-88 | L |
| 24/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
79-96 | L |
| 22/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
74-82 | L |
| 20/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
85-105 | L |
| 16/06 | Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor |
65-54 | W |
| 14/06 | Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor |
75-63 | W |
| 12/06 | Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor |
68-75 | L |
Ahuachapan
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-108 | L |
| 13/09 | CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor |
56-95 | L |
| 09/09 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
86-109 | L |
| 07/09 | Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor |
39-102 | L |
| 14/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-101 | L |
| 12/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
77-105 | L |
| 10/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
80-94 | L |
| 03/06 | A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor |
90-81 | W |
| 01/06 | Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-78 | L |
| 30/05 | Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor |
80-56 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santa Tecla vs Ahuachapan?
Our model gives 77% to Santa Tecla.
How many points are expected in Santa Tecla vs Ahuachapan?
The model estimates 162.4 total points (Santa Tecla 86.4 · Ahuachapan 76).