Basketball · El Salvador Liga Mayor · 28/09, 02:00
Prediction: Salvadorenos vs Ahuachapan
Team pages: Salvadorenos · Ahuachapan
Prediction summary
Estimated points
159.6Total
Salvadorenos84.8
Ahuachapan74.9
1X2
Salvadorenos
Ahuachapan
Recent form · 10 last
Salvadorenos
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Ahuachapan
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Salvadorenos
6–0
Ahuachapan
(6 last)
- Salvadorenos77-75Ahuachapan
- Ahuachapan81-85Salvadorenos
- Ahuachapan82-89Salvadorenos
- Salvadorenos88-56Ahuachapan
- Salvadorenos85-79Ahuachapan
- Ahuachapan76-92Salvadorenos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Salvadorenos 1516 · Ahuachapan 1352
| Salvadorenos | Ahuachapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 81% | 19% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
159.6 points · Bet365 line 162.5 · -2.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points159.6Salvadorenos 84.8 · Ahuachapan 74.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salvadorenos (rating 1516 vs 1352).
- Salvadorenos is a clear favourite (76% market).
- H2H favours Salvadorenos: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Salvadorenos | Ahuachapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 75.3 / 76.7 | 71.6 / 98.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 77.4 / 78.6 | 71.6 / 94.2 |
| Est. result | 85 | 75 |
Est. total159.6
Line O/U162.5
Diff.2.9
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Salvadorenos 6–0–0 Ahuachapan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Salvadorenos | 77-75 | Ahuachapan |
| 20/04/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Ahuachapan | 81-85 | Salvadorenos |
| 02/11/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Ahuachapan | 82-89 | Salvadorenos |
| 11/10/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Salvadorenos | 88-56 | Ahuachapan |
| 09/05/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Salvadorenos | 85-79 | Ahuachapan |
| 11/04/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Ahuachapan | 76-92 | Salvadorenos |
Standings · El Salvador Liga Mayor · LMB 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.Lobos BKB | 9 | 8 | 1 | 771 | 680 | 17 |
| 2 | Santa Ana BC | 9 | 7 | 2 | 821 | 764 | 16 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapan | 8 | 7 | 1 | 746 | 619 | 15 |
| 4 | Cojutepeque | 8 | 5 | 3 | 671 | 566 | 13 |
| 5 | CD Aguila | 8 | 5 | 3 | 644 | 588 | 13 |
| 6 | Salvadorenos | 8 | 4 | 4 | 637 | 633 | 12 |
| 7 | Santiagueno | 7 | 3 | 4 | 558 | 644 | 10 |
| 8 | San Salvador | 8 | 2 | 6 | 688 | 699 | 10 |
| 9 | Santa Tecla | 7 | 2 | 5 | 527 | 576 | 9 |
| 10 | Brujos Izalco | 8 | 1 | 7 | 610 | 703 | 9 |
| 11 | Ahuachapan | 8 | 0 | 8 | 557 | 758 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Salvadorenos | Ahuachapan |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Tecla | 82-79 W | 73-84 L |
| Cojutepeque | 77-71 W | 39-102 L |
| CD Aguila | 81-87 L | 56-95 L |
| A.Lobos BKB | 78-80 L | 71-96 L |
| Isidro Metapan | 77-83 L | 76-108 L |
| San Salvador | 97-83 W | 86-109 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Salvadorenos (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Salvadorenos
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor |
82-79 | W |
| 24/09 | Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor |
77-71 | W |
| 20/09 | Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor |
69-76 | L |
| 18/09 | CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor |
81-87 | L |
| 12/09 | A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor |
78-80 | L |
| 10/09 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
77-83 | L |
| 06/09 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
97-83 | W |
| 16/06 | Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor |
54-65 | L |
| 14/06 | Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor |
63-75 | L |
| 12/06 | Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor |
75-68 | W |
Ahuachapan
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor |
82-88 | L |
| 24/09 | A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor |
71-96 | L |
| 21/09 | Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor |
73-84 | L |
| 18/09 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-108 | L |
| 13/09 | CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor |
56-95 | L |
| 09/09 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
86-109 | L |
| 07/09 | Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor |
39-102 | L |
| 14/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-101 | L |
| 12/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
77-105 | L |
| 10/06 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
80-94 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Salvadorenos vs Ahuachapan?
Our model gives 76% to Salvadorenos.
How many points are expected in Salvadorenos vs Ahuachapan?
The model estimates 159.6 total points (Salvadorenos 84.8 · Ahuachapan 74.9).