Basketball · Switzerland NLB · 07/11, 17:00

Prediction: Lugano Tigers U23 vs BC Baren Kleinbasel

Team pages: Lugano Tigers U23

Prediction summary

Estimated points

158.5Total

Lugano Tigers U2379.4

BC Baren Kleinbasel79.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Lugano Tigers U23 BC Baren Kleinbasel

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Lugano Tigers U23 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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BC Baren Kleinbasel 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lugano Tigers U23 0–2 BC Baren Kleinbasel (2 last)

BC Baren Kleinbasel85-82Lugano Tigers U23
Lugano Tigers U2381-84BC Baren Kleinbasel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugano Tigers U23 1479 · BC Baren Kleinbasel 1525

	Lugano Tigers U23	BC Baren Kleinbasel
Our model	56%	44%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 158.5 points · Bet365 line 157.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points158.5Lugano Tigers U23 79.4 · BC Baren Kleinbasel 79.1

Match keys

H2H favours BC Baren Kleinbasel: 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Lugano Tigers U23	BC Baren Kleinbasel
Points F\|A (Last 10)	78.8 / 83.1	73.9 / 77
Points F\|A (Last 5)	78.2 / 78.4	80.8 / 78.4
Est. result	79	79

Est. total158.5

Line O/U157.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.71

Line ⓘ

Over 157.51.83

Under 157.51.83

Diff.: 1.1 · Est. total: 156.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	2
14:38 +19’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
17:22 +29’	1.80	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano Tigers U23 0–0–2 BC Baren Kleinbasel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Switzerland NLB	BC Baren Kleinbasel	85-82	Lugano Tigers U23
09/11/25 Switzerland NLB	Lugano Tigers U23	81-84	BC Baren Kleinbasel

Standings · Switzerland NLB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fribourg U23	6	5	1	485	428	10
2	Goldcoast Wallabies	6	5	1	409	363	10
3	Morges Saint Prex Red Devils	7	5	2	586	493	10
4	Meyrin Geneve	7	5	2	612	533	10
5	Villars Basket	6	4	2	454	422	8
6	Geneve Lions U23	6	4	2	473	446	8
7	BC Baren Kleinbasel	7	4	3	553	536	8
8	SAV Vacallo Basket	7	4	3	543	508	8
9	Swiss Central Basket	7	4	3	504	510	8
10	Lugano Tigers U23	8	4	4	654	658	8
11	Bernex Basket	5	3	2	417	377	6
12	BC Alte Kanti Aarau	6	3	3	438	419	6
13	CNBS	4	1	3	332	331	2
14	BC Boncourt	6	1	5	364	407	2
15	GC Zurich Wildcats U23	7	1	6	439	623	2
16	BC Winterthur	7	1	6	503	538	2
17	VRB/ULRB Riviera 1952	6	0	6	386	560	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugano Tigers U23	BC Baren Kleinbasel
Swiss Central Basket	76-84 L	81-62 W
Bernex Basket	80-75 W	53-92 L
Morges Saint Prex Red Devils	71-86 L	69-81 L
Goldcoast Wallabies	67-78 L	64-71 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: BC Baren Kleinbasel (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugano Tigers U23

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/11	Swiss Central Basket Switzerland NLB	76-84	L
01/11	Villars Basket Switzerland NLB	75-69	W
25/10	Bernex Basket Switzerland NLB	80-75	W
21/10	SAV Vacallo Basket Switzerland NLB	89-78	W
18/10	Morges Saint Prex Red Devils Switzerland NLB	71-86	L
11/10	Goldcoast Wallabies Switzerland NLB	67-78	L
03/10	VRB/ULRB Riviera 1952 Switzerland NLB	103-84	W
26/09	Meyrin Geneve Switzerland NLB	93-104	L
26/04	Bernex Basket Switzerland NLB	64-68	L
18/04	Bernex Basket Switzerland NLB	70-105	L

BC Baren Kleinbasel

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Morges Saint Prex Red Devils Switzerland NLB	69-81	L
25/10	CNBS Switzerland NLB	97-89	W
22/10	BC Alte Kanti Aarau Switzerland NLB	76-73	W
17/10	Swiss Central Basket Switzerland NLB	81-62	W
08/10	Fribourg U23 Switzerland NLB	81-87	L
03/10	BC Winterthur Switzerland NLB	85-73	W
26/09	Goldcoast Wallabies Switzerland NLB	64-71	L
13/05	Bernex Basket Switzerland NLB	53-92	L
10/05	Bernex Basket Switzerland NLB	63-61	W
02/05	Bernex Basket Switzerland NLB	70-81	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugano Tigers U23 vs BC Baren Kleinbasel?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Lugano Tigers U23 51% · BC Baren Kleinbasel 49%).

How many points are expected in Lugano Tigers U23 vs BC Baren Kleinbasel?

The model estimates 158.5 total points (Lugano Tigers U23 79.4 · BC Baren Kleinbasel 79.1).