Basketball · Romania LNB · 22/10, 18:00

Prediction: Bc Targu Mures vs Steaua Bucuresti

Team pages: Bc Targu Mures · Steaua Bucuresti

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Prediction summary

Estimated points

175.4Total

Bc Targu Mures93.6

Steaua Bucuresti81.8

1X2

80% 20%

Bc Targu Mures Steaua Bucuresti

Recent form · 10 last

Bc Targu Mures 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWLW

Steaua Bucuresti 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Bc Targu Mures 2–4 Steaua Bucuresti (6 last)

Bc Targu Mures83-112Steaua Bucuresti
Steaua Bucuresti94-92Bc Targu Mures
Steaua Bucuresti103-80Bc Targu Mures
Bc Targu Mures96-94Steaua Bucuresti
Steaua Bucuresti91-80Bc Targu Mures
Bc Targu Mures99-82Steaua Bucuresti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bc Targu Mures 1544 · Steaua Bucuresti 1441

	Bc Targu Mures	Steaua Bucuresti
Our model	75%	25%
Market	81%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 175.4 points · Bet365 line 174.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points175.4Bc Targu Mures 93.6 · Steaua Bucuresti 81.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bc Targu Mures (rating 1544 vs 1441).
Bc Targu Mures is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours Steaua Bucuresti: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bc Targu Mures	Steaua Bucuresti
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.9 / 85.8	79.6 / 87.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.6 / 81	82 / 92.8
Est. result	94	82

Est. total175.4

Line O/U174.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.14

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-11.5)1.83

2 (+11.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 174.51.83

Under 174.51.83

Diff.: 2.1 · Est. total: 172.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.14▼	Bet365 1.14
2	4.50 → 5.00▲	Pinn 6.00 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	2
14:35 +11’	1.17	4.50
20:24 +24’	1.14▼	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:36 +11’	1.08	5.09
21:36 +12’	1.10▲	4.72▼
04:43 +2’	1.08▼	5.07▲
06:58 +47’	1.07▼	5.27▲
13:02 +43’	1.09▲	5.71▲
15:45 +1’	1.08▼	5.88▲
17:45 +1’	1.08▼	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bc Targu Mures 2–0–4 Steaua Bucuresti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Romania LNB	Bc Targu Mures	83-112	Steaua Bucuresti
25/10/25 Romania LNB	Steaua Bucuresti	94-92	Bc Targu Mures
22/03/25 Romania LNB	Steaua Bucuresti	103-80	Bc Targu Mures
18/11/24 Romania LNB	Bc Targu Mures	96-94	Steaua Bucuresti
06/04/23 Romania LNB	Steaua Bucuresti	91-80	Bc Targu Mures
10/03/23 Romania LNB	Bc Targu Mures	99-82	Steaua Bucuresti

Standings · Romania LNB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSO Voluntari	3	3	0	277	247	6
2	Pitesti	3	2	1	277	268	5
3	Dinamo Bucuresti	3	2	1	266	235	5
4	Atlassib Sibiu	3	2	1	313	305	5
5	Oradea	3	2	1	272	253	5
6	Bc Targu Mures	3	2	1	254	246	5
7	CS Valcea 1924	3	2	1	273	248	5
8	Craiova	3	2	1	305	292	5
9	CS Municipal Ploiesti	3	1	2	227	264	4
10	CSM Corona Brasov	3	1	2	257	272	4
11	BC Timisoara	3	1	2	253	261	4
12	Steaua Bucuresti	3	1	2	256	261	4
13	Phoenix Galati	3	0	3	275	314	3
14	Rapid Bucuresti	3	0	3	273	312	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bc Targu Mures	Steaua Bucuresti
CS Valcea 1924	91-83 W	90-97 L
BC Timisoara	78-72 W	48-90 L
CSM Corona Brasov	96-81 W	97-77 W
CS Municipal Ploiesti	79-89 L	68-76 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bc Targu Mures

LLWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	CS Valcea 1924 Romania LNB	91-83	W
10/10	CSO Voluntari Romania LNB	85-91	L
04/10	BC Timisoara Romania LNB	78-72	W
23/05	CSM Corona Brasov Romania LNB	96-81	W
21/05	CSM Corona Brasov Romania LNB	118-78	W
16/05	ACS Targu Jiu Romania LNB	98-95	W
12/05	ACS Targu Jiu Romania LNB	108-87	W
10/05	ACS Targu Jiu Romania LNB	92-91	W
30/04	CS Municipal Ploiesti Romania LNB	79-89	L
26/04	CS Municipal Ploiesti Romania LNB	74-91	L

Steaua Bucuresti

WLWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	CS Municipal Ploiesti Romania LNB	68-76	L
12/10	Rapid Bucuresti Romania LNB	98-88	W
06/10	CS Valcea 1924 Romania LNB	90-97	L
22/05	CS Municipal Ploiesti Romania LNB	71-103	L
20/05	CS Municipal Ploiesti Romania LNB	83-100	L
15/05	BC Timisoara Romania LNB	48-90	L
11/05	BC Timisoara Romania LNB	72-85	L
02/05	CSM Corona Brasov Romania LNB	97-77	W
30/04	CSM Corona Brasov Romania LNB	85-88	L
26/04	CSM Corona Brasov Romania LNB	84-71	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bc Targu Mures vs Steaua Bucuresti?

Our model gives 80% to Bc Targu Mures.

How many points are expected in Bc Targu Mures vs Steaua Bucuresti?

The model estimates 175.4 total points (Bc Targu Mures 93.6 · Steaua Bucuresti 81.8).