Basketball · British SLB · 09/10, 20:30

Prediction: Leicester Riders vs Bristol Flyers

Team pages: Leicester Riders · Bristol Flyers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

166.5Total

Leicester Riders83.9

Bristol Flyers82.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Leicester Riders Bristol Flyers

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Leicester Riders 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLLLL

Bristol Flyers 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Leicester Riders 5–1 Bristol Flyers (6 last)

Leicester Riders85-78Bristol Flyers
Bristol Flyers79-84Leicester Riders
Leicester Riders85-73Bristol Flyers
Bristol Flyers74-70Leicester Riders
Leicester Riders86-80Bristol Flyers
Bristol Flyers55-78Leicester Riders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leicester Riders 1493 · Bristol Flyers 1456

	Leicester Riders	Bristol Flyers
Our model	68%	32%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 166.5 points · Bet365 line 164.5 · +2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points166.5Leicester Riders 83.9 · Bristol Flyers 82.5

Match keys

H2H favours Leicester Riders: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Leicester Riders	Bristol Flyers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	82 / 86.3	85 / 83.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	78.4 / 86.6	81.6 / 82.8
Est. result	84	83

Est. total166.5

Line O/U164.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.74

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 164.51.83

Under 164.51.83

Diff.: 4.05 · Est. total: 168.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.92 ★
2	2.12 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	2
12:49 +2’	1.65	2.12
23:50 +4’	1.83▲	1.83▼
09:37 +19’	1.95▲	1.74▼
11:45 +22’	1.83▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
20:47 +18’	1.76	1.99
00:37 +16’	1.72▼	2.04▲
22:26 +35’	1.95▲	1.79▼
23:53 +1’	1.98▲	1.77▼
01:08 +47’	2.01▲	1.75▼
02:37 +17’	2.04▲	1.72▼
04:15 +36’	2.07▲	1.70▼
05:03 +51’	2.10▲	1.68▼
05:59 +55’	2.13▲	1.66▼
07:07 +45’	2.17▲	1.64▼
08:30 +25’	2.27▲	1.58▼
10:26 +40’	1.97▼	1.78▲
12:02 +5’	1.94▼	1.80▲
15:55 +23’	1.92▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leicester Riders 5–0–1 Bristol Flyers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 British SLB	Leicester Riders	85-78	Bristol Flyers
18/01/26 British SLB	Bristol Flyers	79-84	Leicester Riders
30/12/25 British SLB	Leicester Riders	85-73	Bristol Flyers
28/09/25 British SLB	Bristol Flyers	74-70	Leicester Riders
05/05/25 British SLB	Leicester Riders	86-80	Bristol Flyers
02/05/25 British SLB	Bristol Flyers	55-78	Leicester Riders

Standings · British SLB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	London Lions	5	5	0	404	350	10
2	Newcastle Eagles	3	2	1	261	219	4
3	Bristol Flyers	4	2	2	323	324	4
4	Sheffield Sharks	1	1	0	98	76	2
5	Caledonia Gladiators	3	1	2	221	262	2
5	Cheshire Phoenix	3	1	2	281	286	2
5	Liverpool Basketball	3	1	2	195	220	2
5	Manchester	3	1	2	201	216	2
9	Leicester Riders	2	0	2	160	179	0
9	Surrey 89ers	1	0	1	67	79	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leicester Riders	Bristol Flyers
London Lions	66-71 L	78-80 L
Cheshire Phoenix	94-108 L	101-92 W
Newcastle Eagles	94-86 W	68-94 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol Flyers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leicester Riders

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	London Lions British SLB	66-71	L
27/09	Cheshire Phoenix British SLB	94-108	L
10/05	London Lions British SLB	65-78	L
07/05	London Lions British SLB	70-89	L
03/05	Sheffield Sharks British SLB	97-87	W
01/05	Sheffield Sharks British SLB	78-81	L
26/04	Cheshire Phoenix British SLB	77-98	L
24/04	Newcastle Eagles British SLB	94-86	W
21/04	Sheffield Sharks British SLB	87-85	W
19/04	Sheffield Sharks British SLB	92-80	W

Bristol Flyers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	Manchester British SLB	76-58	W
25/09	Newcastle Eagles British SLB	68-94	L
20/09	Cheshire Phoenix British SLB	101-92	W
18/09	London Lions British SLB	78-80	L
03/05	Manchester British SLB	85-90	L
30/04	Manchester British SLB	95-98	L
26/04	Newcastle Eagles British SLB	94-75	W
24/04	Caledonia Gladiators British SLB	91-82	W
19/04	Surrey 89ers British SLB	79-89	L
12/04	Manchester British SLB	83-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leicester Riders vs Bristol Flyers?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Leicester Riders 54% · Bristol Flyers 46%).

How many points are expected in Leicester Riders vs Bristol Flyers?

The model estimates 166.5 total points (Leicester Riders 83.9 · Bristol Flyers 82.5).