Basketball · Spain Segunda FEB · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: Caceres vs Valladolid

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Prediction summary

Estimated points

164.4Total

Caceres82

Valladolid82.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

49% 51%

Caceres Valladolid

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Caceres 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWWL

Valladolid 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Caceres 2–4 Valladolid (6 last)

Caceres98-85Valladolid
Valladolid94-80Caceres
Valladolid99-72Caceres
Caceres79-87Valladolid
Caceres76-69Valladolid
Caceres81-87Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caceres 1517 · Valladolid 1544

	Caceres	Valladolid
Our model	59%	41%
Market	47%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 164.4 points · Bet365 line 161.5 · +2.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points164.4Caceres 82 · Valladolid 82.4

Match keys

H2H favours Valladolid: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Caceres	Valladolid
Points F\|A (Last 10)	77 / 78.2	84.5 / 82.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	76.6 / 79.6	83.6 / 76.4
Est. result	82	82

Est. total164.4

Line O/U161.5

Diff.2.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

21.74

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.83

2 (-1.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 161.51.83

Under 161.51.83

Diff.: 0.6 · Est. total: 160.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
2	1.74 → 1.74	Bet365 1.74

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	2
18:53 +12’	1.95	1.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
16:47 +5’	1.81	1.79
22:54 +55’	1.81▲	1.79
14:04 +55’	1.85▲	1.82▲
17:49 +5’	1.93▲	1.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caceres 2–0–4 Valladolid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Segunda FEB	Caceres	98-85	Valladolid
20/12/25 Spain Segunda FEB	Valladolid	94-80	Caceres
10/02/24 Spain Primera FEB	Valladolid	99-72	Caceres
15/12/23 Spain Primera FEB	Caceres	79-87	Valladolid
26/09/23 Club Friendlies	Caceres	76-69	Valladolid
19/05/23 Spain Primera FEB	Caceres	81-87	Valladolid

Standings · Spain Segunda FEB · Segunda FEB 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melilla	3	3	0	248	220	6
2	Caceres	3	2	1	250	221	5
3	Jaen CB	3	2	1	244	241	5
4	CB Toledo	3	2	1	252	239	5
5	Valladolid	3	2	1	256	204	5
6	Ponferrada	3	2	1	246	228	5
7	CD Leonesa Basket	3	2	1	259	246	5
8	Tres Cantos	3	2	1	242	234	5
9	Algeciras	3	1	2	237	255	4
10	Estudiantes 2	3	1	2	217	230	4
11	Moron	3	1	2	233	241	4
12	Baloncesto Ciudad de Badajoz	3	1	2	217	278	4
13	Spanish Basketball Academy	3	0	3	233	253	3
14	CB Getafe	3	0	3	205	249	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caceres	Valladolid
Jaen CB	82-84 L	91-84 W
Cordoba	58-70 L	92-76 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Valladolid (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caceres

WLLWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Jaen CB Spain Segunda FEB	82-84	L
10/10	Algeciras Spain Segunda FEB	86-71	W
04/10	CB Toledo Spain Segunda FEB	82-66	W
02/05	CB Sant Antoni Spain Segunda FEB	61-93	L
25/04	CB Sant Antoni Spain Segunda FEB	72-84	L
18/04	CB Toledo Spain Segunda FEB	77-75	W
11/04	Valladolid Spain Segunda FEB	98-85	W
04/04	Cordoba Spain Segunda FEB	58-70	L
29/03	Clavijo Spain Segunda FEB	68-79	L
21/03	Circulo Gijon Spain Segunda FEB	86-75	W

Valladolid

LWWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Baloncesto Ciudad de Badajoz Spain Segunda FEB	106-59	W
10/10	CB Getafe Spain Segunda FEB	91-75	W
03/10	Melilla Spain Segunda FEB	59-70	L
02/05	EB Lliria Spain Segunda FEB	87-76	W
25/04	EB Lliria Spain Segunda FEB	75-102	L
18/04	Iraurgi Spain Segunda FEB	84-100	L
11/04	Caceres Spain Segunda FEB	85-98	L
05/04	Jaen CB Spain Segunda FEB	91-84	W
28/03	Cordoba Spain Segunda FEB	92-76	W
22/03	Caja 87s Spain Segunda FEB	75-81	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caceres vs Valladolid?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Caceres 49% · Valladolid 51%).

How many points are expected in Caceres vs Valladolid?

The model estimates 164.4 total points (Caceres 82 · Valladolid 82.4).