Basketball · Spain Primera FEB · 18/10, 18:30

Prediction: Estudiantes vs Palencia

Team pages: Estudiantes · Palencia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

159.1Total

Estudiantes79.7

Palencia79.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Estudiantes Palencia

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Estudiantes 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Palencia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Estudiantes 3–3 Palencia (6 last)

Palencia93-86Estudiantes
Estudiantes72-94Palencia
Palencia69-73Estudiantes
Palencia83-52Estudiantes
Estudiantes104-98Palencia
Palencia80-87Estudiantes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estudiantes 1549 · Palencia 1589

	Estudiantes	Palencia
Our model	57%	43%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 159.1 points · Bet365 line 160.5 · -1.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points159.1Estudiantes 79.7 · Palencia 79.4

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Estudiantes	Palencia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	86.3 / 74.8	83.9 / 72.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	88 / 77	82.6 / 71
Est. result	80	79

Est. total159.1

Line O/U160.5

Diff.1.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.74

Line ⓘ

Over 160.51.83

Under 160.51.83

Diff.: 1.9 · Est. total: 158.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 2.02 ★
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	2
21:11 +6’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:48 +25’	2.02	1.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes 3–0–3 Palencia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/09/26 Club Friendlies	Palencia	93-86	Estudiantes
08/02/26 Spain Primera FEB	Estudiantes	72-94	Palencia
25/01/26 Copa Espana	Palencia	69-73	Estudiantes
22/11/25 Spain Primera FEB	Palencia	83-52	Estudiantes
16/03/25 Spain Primera FEB	Estudiantes	104-98	Palencia
19/10/24 Spain Primera FEB	Palencia	80-87	Estudiantes

Standings · Spain Primera FEB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Estudiantes	3	3	0	264	214	6
2	Palencia	3	3	0	256	212	6
3	Lucentum Alicante	3	3	0	261	220	6
4	Estela	3	3	0	258	230	6
5	Gran Canaria	3	2	1	261	221	5
6	Ourense	3	2	1	267	258	5
7	Palmer Basket Mallorca	3	2	1	251	244	5
8	Granada	3	2	1	244	237	5
9	Caja 87s	3	2	1	223	224	5
10	Albacete	3	2	1	254	258	5
11	Cordoba	3	1	2	210	208	4
12	Gipuzkoa Basket	3	1	2	244	272	4
13	Oviedo	3	1	2	235	271	4
14	Palma	3	0	3	256	282	3
15	Fuenlabrada	3	0	3	224	252	3
16	Menorca	3	0	3	208	241	3
17	Tizona Burgos	3	0	3	251	286	3
18	CB Zamora	3	0	3	199	236	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estudiantes	Palencia
Coruna	97-100 L	81-92 L
Fuenlabrada	70-77 L	76-51 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estudiantes

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Gipuzkoa Basket Spain Primera FEB	106-76	W
03/10	CB Zamora Spain Primera FEB	80-73	W
27/09	Caja 87s Spain Primera FEB	78-65	W
07/06	Coruna Spain Primera FEB	97-100	L
06/06	Oviedo Spain Primera FEB	79-71	W
22/05	Lucentum Alicante Spain Primera FEB	113-72	W
17/05	Lucentum Alicante Spain Primera FEB	74-67	W
15/05	Lucentum Alicante Spain Primera FEB	93-77	W
08/05	Fuenlabrada Spain Primera FEB	70-77	L
03/05	Palmer Basket Mallorca Spain Primera FEB	73-70	W

Palencia

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Menorca Spain Primera FEB	91-76	W
02/10	Cordoba Spain Primera FEB	70-67	W
26/09	Albacete Spain Primera FEB	95-69	W
06/06	Coruna Spain Primera FEB	81-92	L
29/05	Fuenlabrada Spain Primera FEB	76-51	W
24/05	Fuenlabrada Spain Primera FEB	72-78	L
22/05	Fuenlabrada Spain Primera FEB	81-88	L
17/05	Fuenlabrada Spain Primera FEB	83-79	W
15/05	Fuenlabrada Spain Primera FEB	90-52	W
08/05	Estela Spain Primera FEB	100-70	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estudiantes vs Palencia?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Estudiantes 51% · Palencia 49%).

How many points are expected in Estudiantes vs Palencia?

The model estimates 159.1 total points (Estudiantes 79.7 · Palencia 79.4).