Basketball · Chile LNB · 12/08, 03:30

Prediction: Deportivo Valdivia vs Puerto Varas

Team pages: Deportivo Valdivia · Puerto Varas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

159.8Total

Deportivo Valdivia87.5

Puerto Varas72.3

1X2

86% 14%

Deportivo Valdivia Puerto Varas

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Valdivia 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Puerto Varas 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Valdivia 2–4 Puerto Varas (6 last)

Puerto Varas68-85Deportivo Valdivia
Puerto Varas104-86Deportivo Valdivia
Deportivo Valdivia76-84Puerto Varas
Puerto Varas87-79Deportivo Valdivia
Deportivo Valdivia65-60Puerto Varas
Puerto Varas82-75Deportivo Valdivia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Valdivia 1609 · Puerto Varas 1485

	Deportivo Valdivia	Puerto Varas
Our model	77%	23%
Market	89%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 159.8 points · Bet365 line 156.5 · +3.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points159.8Deportivo Valdivia 87.5 · Puerto Varas 72.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Valdivia (rating 1609 vs 1485).
Deportivo Valdivia is a clear favourite (86% market).
H2H favours Puerto Varas: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Deportivo Valdivia	Puerto Varas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.3 / 71	77.6 / 83.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87 / 71.6	82 / 82
Est. result	88	72

Est. total159.8

Line O/U156.5

Diff.3.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.05

28.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-15.5)1.83

2 (+15.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 156.51.83

Under 156.51.83

Diff.: 4.55 · Est. total: 161.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.05▼	Bet365 1.05
2	7.25 → 8.25▲	Bet365 8.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 11.7%

Time*	1	2
11:35 +10’	1.08	7.25
07:43 +2’	1.12▲	5.75▼
11:44 +1’	1.08▼	7.25▲
18:41 +4’	1.05▼	8.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
11:45 +1’	1.03	5.57
16:45	1.03	5.56▼
02:44 +1’	1.05▲	5.10▼
03:44 +1’	1.07▲	4.59▼
05:44 +1’	1.07▼	4.64▲
09:44 +1’	1.05▼	5.07▲
10:43 +1’	1.05	5.06▼
13:44 +1’	1.05▲	5.03▼
14:43 +1’	1.05▼	5.05▲
16:44	1.05▲	5.02▼
17:44 +1’	1.05▼	5.05▲
21:45	1.03▼	5.75▲
22:42 +3’	1.04▲	6.45▲
23:43 +2’	1.03▼	6.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Valdivia 2–0–4 Puerto Varas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Chile LNB	Puerto Varas	68-85	Deportivo Valdivia
03/05/26 Chile LNB	Puerto Varas	104-86	Deportivo Valdivia
12/04/26 Chile LNB	Deportivo Valdivia	76-84	Puerto Varas
22/03/26 Chile Super Cup	Puerto Varas	87-79	Deportivo Valdivia
18/11/25 Chile LNB	Deportivo Valdivia	65-60	Puerto Varas
16/11/25 Chile LNB	Puerto Varas	82-75	Deportivo Valdivia

Standings · Chile LNB · Clausura, Conference South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Valdivia	9	9	0	815	640	18
2	Espanol Osorno	10	7	3	852	834	17
3	ABA Ancud	10	5	5	834	839	15
4	Puerto Varas	10	4	6	776	832	14
5	Las Animas	10	3	7	856	827	13
6	CD Castro	10	3	7	719	856	13
7	Puerto Montt Basquetbol	9	3	6	689	713	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Valdivia	Puerto Varas
Puerto Montt Basquetbol	80-74 W	59-80 L
Espanol Osorno	77-70 W	76-87 L
ABA Ancud	86-64 W	82-86 L
CD Castro	92-79 W	102-67 W
Las Animas	100-71 W	91-90 W
Puerto Montt	88-70 W	86-81 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Valdivia (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Valdivia

WWWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/08	Puerto Montt Basquetbol Chile LNB	80-74	W
07/08	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	77-70	W
03/08	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	86-64	W
02/08	CD Castro Chile LNB	92-79	W
27/07	Las Animas Chile LNB	100-71	W
26/07	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	85-68	W
18/07	Puerto Montt Chile LNB	88-70	W
16/07	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	108-82	W
13/07	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	97-78	W
12/07	CD Castro Chile LNB	90-54	W

Puerto Varas

LWLWLLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/08	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	82-86	L
06/08	CD Castro Chile LNB	102-67	W
03/08	Puerto Montt Basquetbol Chile LNB	59-80	L
30/07	Las Animas Chile LNB	91-90	W
27/07	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	76-87	L
26/07	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	68-85	L
20/07	CD Castro Chile LNB	77-69	W
19/07	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	84-90	L
14/07	Puerto Montt Chile LNB	86-81	W
10/07	Las Animas Chile LNB	51-97	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Valdivia vs Puerto Varas?

Our model gives 86% to Deportivo Valdivia.

How many points are expected in Deportivo Valdivia vs Puerto Varas?

The model estimates 159.8 total points (Deportivo Valdivia 87.5 · Puerto Varas 72.3).